Ukraine

[Pete F.]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

JUST imagine if trump were still president, actually you don’t have to, just read his statements
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

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Pete: Biden is bad, but there might be a person or two who’d be worse.

he’s tanking with independents. that’s the ballgame.
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[Jim in CT]

Biden, as a candidate for potus:

“Putin doesn’t want me to be president. If you’re wondering why, it’s because I’m the only person in this field who’s gone toe-to-toe with him.”

First Biden clobbered an armed drug kingpin named Corn Pop. taking on Putin is nothing compared to that.
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[Pete F.]

I heard Putin just used the term ‘drug-addicted neo-Nazis’ and I think it’s nice he finally gave the Trump’s a shout-out.
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[JohnR]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

The truth is Biden has made hard intelligence public, transparently - and it turned out true, it has boxed Putin in, he’s rallied nato and the world community and handled this crisis with a sure even hand.

The truth is the Admin did a good job at warning everyone this was coming, heck a lot of us were warning this was coming.

Te Admin did a bad job at convincing others to prepare. They did a bad job of altering the equation to the point of change in Putin's calculations (might be nothing would have).

Originally Posted by Pete F.

JUST imagine if trump were still president, actually you don’t have to, just read his statements
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Well, looking at what he did to help Ukraine before Biden it looks like Trump has had a successful impact. In addition known assistance like Javelins, there was USA support including several years of significant training - which we are seeing the results of now. They are holding, taking a beating, but holding.

[Pete F.]

Trump withheld aid authorized by Congress for months until he was forced to release it, then when he authorized Javelins he did it with the caveat that they couldn’t be used against the Russian backed separatists.
Luckily for the Ukrainians, Zelensky didn’t listen to Trump who said “ I think he’s going to make a deal with President Putin, and he will be invited to the White House,” Mr. Trump said of the Ukrainian president
“I really hope you and President Putin get together and can solve your problem.”
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[wdmso]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Make not mistake - we are likely as close to all out nuclear war as we have been since Cuba. Putin is a madman.




Yep. How much have you been watching what is happening there? Seems to me the best and brightest RUS forces have not been as much in contact as expected. Some of the forces used are the Rosgardia, loosely akin, but not as capable / competent as our National Guard units.

The fact that Ukraine still has active AAD and Air Forces not yet 72 hours in is impressive. Block to block fighting in Kyiv might favor the Ukranians.

Ukraine has held Cherniv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Mariupol, the rough line of Kuhansk Donetsk. Yesterday they staged a deep strike to a couple airfields close to Kyiv, initially held those fields but were beaten back enough that the follow on Ilyushins carrying reinforcements were reportedly turned around.

Also rumors of two RUAF Ilyushins shot down tonight IAO Kyiv carrying landing forces with probably a 150-200 troops each.

They have a lot of issues with RUS forces in outskirts of Kyiv as well as a 100-120K breakout from Crimea. Some RUS SF have reportedly shed their RUS uniforms and donned UA uniforms.

Fustercluck

Some estimates of over 3000 Russian casualties so far.

Fighting in Kyiv relatively close to Maidan:

I saw those troop carries being shot down man pads? I didn’t think we gave them any stingers but did just read Poland sent some Grom shoulder-fired heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles, and it look like they are using them on high casualties targets …with success

The Ukraine’s know their land not sure if they ever constructed many obstacles or mined road ways


Sending Conscripting troops with less than a year experience to fight a 3 front war , looks like Russians haven’t learned from WW2 and their send everyone approach
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[JohnR]

Originally Posted by wdmso

I saw those troop carries being shot down man pads? I didn’t think we gave them any stingers but did just read Poland sent some Grom shoulder-fired heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles, and it look like they are using them on high casualties targets …with success

The Ukraine’s know their land not sure if they ever constructed many obstacles or mined road ways


Sending Conscripting troops with less than a year experience to fight a 3 front war , looks like Russians haven’t learned from WW2 and their send everyone approach
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We sent planeloads of Stingers and additional planeloads of Javelins. Baltic states and several former WPact, (CZ, PO, RO, BU) sent hundreds of stingers, and late RUS MANPADS.

The RUS gains, other than in the south, are really not inspiring confidence.

[wdmso]

Originally Posted by JohnR

We sent planeloads of Stingers and additional planeloads of Javelins. Baltic states and several former WPact, (CZ, PO, RO, BU) sent hundreds of stingers, and late RUS MANPADS.

The RUS gains, other than in the south, are really not inspiring confidence.

I figure the Javelins but haven't heard of their use. Because I am sure we want to know their effectiveness on New Russian Armor
including AT4s I fired a few hard to hit at distance


I have no expectations of a Ukraine Military victory .. but seems they are winning the public relation war .. Swinging many to support more equipment then a few days ago

Its going to get uglier in the coming days for both sides

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by wdmso

I figure the Javelins but haven't heard of their use. Because I am sure we want to know their effectiveness on New Russian Armor
including AT4s I fired a few hard to hit at distance


I have no expectations of a Ukraine Military victory .. but seems they are winning the public relation war .. Swinging many to support more equipment then a few days ago

Its going to get uglier in the coming days for both sides

BTW - RUS had retrofitted much of the their armor / mechanized for drone submuntioins - still those Turkish made Bayraktar drones UA is using seem to be hitting RUS hard.

Yes. Embarrassment for Putin is going to change things not in a good way. Talks of kicking RUS out of SWIFT, lots of countries denying RUS commercial aviation, shipping.

[scottw]

oh boy....

A new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released Friday found that 62 percent of those polled believed Putin would not be moving against Ukraine if Trump had been president.

When looking strictly at the answers of Democrats and Republicans, 85 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats answered this way. . . . A majority of Americans polled — 59 percent — also said they believed that the Russian president moved on Ukraine because Putin saw weakness in President Biden.

Thirty-eight percent of Democrats think Trump would have prevented this. After six full years of blanket press coverage calling Trump a pawn of Putin.

[The Dad Fisherman]

Originally Posted by scottw

oh boy....

A new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released Friday found that 62 percent of those polled believed Putin would not be moving against Ukraine if Trump had been president.

When looking strictly at the answers of Democrats and Republicans, 85 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats answered this way. . . . A majority of Americans polled — 59 percent — also said they believed that the Russian president moved on Ukraine because Putin saw weakness in President Biden.

Thirty-eight percent of Democrats think Trump would have prevented this. After six full years of blanket press coverage calling Trump a pawn of Putin.

..

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by The Dad Fisherman

..

oh the kids are gonna love that…
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[Pete F.]

Ukraine claims it's killed almost 3,000 Russian soldiers in the first 36 hours of the invasion.

As ever, you have to take these things with a grain of salt, but anything even remotely close to that number would be stunning – the US lost 4,431 in two decades in Iraq
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[wdmso]

Originally Posted by scottw

oh boy....

A new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released Friday found that 62 percent of those polled believed Putin would not be moving against Ukraine if Trump had been president.

When looking strictly at the answers of Democrats and Republicans, 85 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats answered this way. . . . A majority of Americans polled — 59 percent — also said they believed that the Russian president moved on Ukraine because Putin saw weakness in President Biden.

Thirty-eight percent of Democrats think Trump would have prevented this. After six full years of blanket press coverage calling Trump a pawn of Putin.

That same 62% think he won the election or the election was rigged

Of course Putin wouldn’t have invaded because Trump would have given Putin what he wanted no nato in Ukraine and more us Troops removed from Europe .

Not because he’s a strong leader as you cult members suggest

When looking strictly at the answers of Democrats and Republicans, 85 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats answered this way.

Who would have guessed

However, 38 percent of all Americans polled believed that Putin would have invaded Ukraine even if Trump had been president


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[scottw]

Originally Posted by wdmso

That same 62% think he won the election or the election was rigged

Of course Putin wouldn’t have invaded because Trump would have given Putin what he wanted no nato in Ukraine and more us Troops removed from Europe .

Not because he’s a strong leader as you cult members suggest

When looking strictly at the answers of Democrats and Republicans, 85 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats answered this way.

Who would have guessed

However, 38 percent of all Americans polled believed that Putin would have invaded Ukraine even if Trump had been president


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you sound like biden struggling to make a point....

[wdmso]

thermobaric rockets systems seen on their way

[spence]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Yes. Embarrassment for Putin is going to change things not in a good way.

I think it could go way beyond embarrassment. If there’s no clear path out through Ukraine he could drag other countries into this mess or just wage war on the West in general. Start stockpiling canned tuna.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by spence

I think it could go way beyond embarrassment. If there’s no clear path out through Ukraine he could drag other countries into this mess or just wage war on the West in general. Start stockpiling canned tuna.

he threatened finland and sweden not to join NATO. If Putin had a brain, i think it’s broke.

it’s hard to believe we’re actually talking about an unprovoked invasion.

I’d love to see Putin answer for this someday.
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[scottw]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

he threatened finland and sweden not to join NATO. If Putin had a brain, i think it’s broke.

it’s hard to believe we’re actually talking about an unprovoked invasion.

I’d love to see Putin answer for this someday.
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it's not the first time in history...we just like to act as though it can't happen....

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by scottw

it's not the first time in history...we just like to act as though it can't happen....

but it’s the first time in a loooong time. you’re right, dangerous to get complacent.
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[scottw]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

but it’s the first time in a loooong time. you’re right, dangerous to get complacent.
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depends on your definition of long

some would include this "And then there was George W. Bush, who unnecessarily invaded Saddam’s Iraq—which had been severely weakened by Bush Sr.’s pounding of it a decade before—on a bunch of trumped up-accusations."

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by scottw

depends on your definition of long

some would include this "And then there was George W. Bush, who unnecessarily invaded Saddam’s Iraq—which had been severely weakened by Bush Sr.’s pounding of it a decade before—on a bunch of trumped up-accusations."

very true.
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[spence]

Originally Posted by scottw

depends on your definition of long

some would include this "And then there was George W. Bush, who unnecessarily invaded Saddam’s Iraq—which had been severely weakened by Bush Sr.’s pounding of it a decade before—on a bunch of trumped up-accusations."

As much as the Iraq war was a tragic blunder all around at least you could argue we were up against an incredibly corrupt authoritarian regime. In Ukraine we’re talking about a mostly peaceful democracy.

Worst quote reportedly overheard from a Russian soldier: “We don’t know who to shoot, they all look like us.”

[scottw]

Originally Posted by spence

As much as the Iraq war was a tragic blunder all around at least you could argue we were up against an incredibly corrupt authoritarian regime. In Ukraine we’re talking about a mostly peaceful democracy.

2 for 2 stating the obvious today...good job!

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

Ukraine claims it's killed almost 3,000 Russian soldiers in the first 36 hours of the invasion.

As ever, you have to take these things with a grain of salt, but anything even remotely close to that number would be stunning – the US lost 4,431 in two decades in Iraq
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I am seeing enough that convinces me that number might be close to accurate. Ukraine's losses are also much higher than reported, but they are holding so far. Ballsy AF.

Originally Posted by wdmso

thermobaric rockets systems seen on their way

They've been doing a lot of Grads in different places but the Thermobaric weapons are an entire different level of bad.

Originally Posted by spence

I think it could go way beyond embarrassment. If there’s no clear path out through Ukraine he could drag other countries into this mess or just wage war on the West in general. Start stockpiling canned tuna.

True. Having the electricity off for a long time is not out of the question (cyber or worse) and we are always about 9 meals away from absolute mayhem.

[scottw]

good job....


During the phase of Russia’s troop buildup that began last fall, the White House presented evidence of Russia’s activities surrounding Ukraine to Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to the U.S., according to the New York Times. Instead of pressuring Moscow to back down, the Chinese government shared that intelligence with the Kremlin.

[nightfighter]

Originally Posted by JohnR

I am seeing enough that convinces me that number might be close to accurate. Ukraine's losses are also much higher than reported, but they are holding so far. Ballsy AF.

Conscripted troops with less training contribute to early losses

They've been doing a lot of Grads in different places but the Thermobaric weapons are an entire different level of bad.

Horrible weapon system. Horrible way to die



True. Having the electricity off for a long time is not out of the question (cyber or worse) and we are always about 9 meals away from absolute mayhem.

Choose your level of preparation...
I think German Chancellor is taking the lead here for a European led coalition. Might be NATO, but could involve non NATO countries as well. He had Polish PM and head of Lithuania in Berlin today. It would be best IMO if this were not US led response. American participation, in a significant way, but not at the head of the coalition.

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by scottw

good job....


During the phase of Russia’s troop buildup that began last fall, the White House presented evidence of Russia’s activities surrounding Ukraine to Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to the U.S., according to the New York Times. Instead of pressuring Moscow to back down, the Chinese government shared that intelligence with the Kremlin.

I think this was good. They tried to get China to assist - no surprise they didn't , but it is good others know.

I think it is good that the Biden admin spilled a lot of beans on RUS leading up to this, including that VP had made its decisions. Too many important leaders with willing to ignore what was happening.

Originally Posted by nightfighter

Choose your level of preparation...
I think German Chancellor is taking the lead here for a European led coalition. Might be NATO, but could involve non NATO countries as well. He had Polish PM and head of Lithuania in Berlin today. It would be best IMO if this were not US led response. American participation, in a significant way, but not at the head of the coalition.

I think Poland should be leading, Germany is NOT yet to be trusted based on how they have behaved the past decade WRT Russia and their own defense.

[nightfighter]

Too bad about all that weaponry we left in Afghanistan...... Just imagine if that had been put in someone else's hands