Future Weather: Irene

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by likwid

There hasn't been one, not sure what crack the local news is smoking.

edit: also weather channel.
they were just going on about how GFS shows it hitting hatteras, GFS/GFS ensemble have it running about 50-100 miles offshore hatteras.

crack poureth over

Yeh, I just saw that bit. Plus we now have the possibilities of Tornadoes on the east side of the storm. Any check what calendar year this is ? 2012?

But someone alluded earlier that it is always safe where Jim Cantore shows up and supposedly he's doing PVD - so I'm safe!

[Mike P]

The NWS track at 11 PM hasn't changed one iota. Same track as this morning. A bad one for us.

[Mike P]

Still not great, but a little better for us. But--it's gonna suck for millions from NYC to DC.

[likwid]

NYC would be toast if that holds.

Lets see what the turn does.

[Mike P]

That track is starting to look eerily familiar. I was only a year old when this one visited, but I saw the 8 mm movies that my dad took of Taylor's Point in Buzzards Bay.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Mike P

That track is starting to look eerily familiar. I was only a year old when this one visited, but I saw the 8 mm movies that my dad took of Taylor's Point in Buzzards Bay.

Attachment 48143

Carol/38 take your pick.

[Mike P]

38 brought a 10' storm surge in Buzzards Bay, and Carol's was 8'. The old RR station in Wareham had both marks on one of its walls. I think there'll be lots of flooding along the South Coast and up into Buzzards Bay--we have new moon tides coming up, too.

This is going to be a major suck pill for a lot of people. Hopefully, it might have an effect on the thinking about shoreline development, but, probably not.

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by Mike P

That track is starting to look eerily familiar. I was only a year old when this one visited, but I saw the 8 mm movies that my dad took of Taylor's Point in Buzzards Bay.

Attachment 48143

There is a big difference between a Cat 1/2 and a Cat 3 storm, but expect a lot of overwash, erosion and damage along the coast. Bob was a 2 over BI, then dropped to a 1. This should be similar intensity....

[justplugit]

The 38 storm was worse than Carol. It brought a large ship in
and deposited in downtown Providence.
I was 15 when Carol hit and that was a wicked storm. Still remember the devestation. Loked like Hiroshima.
The microbursts and tornadoes these storms produce do unbelievable damage.

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND

There is a big difference between a Cat 1/2 and a Cat 3 storm, but expect a lot of overwash, erosion and damage along the coast. Bob was a 2 over BI, then dropped to a 1. This should be similar intensity....

Bob was a much more compact storm than this one, though. I was living on LI when it passed 60 miles to the west as a cat 2, and the leaves barely rustled. Even on the eastern side, hurricane force winds didn't reach too far from the eye wall.