"Recovery Summer"

[spence]

Originally Posted by striperman36

time to start coding more.

It's interesting to look at the history...

Back in the day a machinist would pretty much do everything by hand. I remember a plant one time (they made aftermarket piston aircraft engines) had all these old lathes from WW2 used to turn tank cam shafts...wow, these things were big.

Then NC programming came about and you'd program a routine by tape.

Then even that got computerized (CNC) but the machinist still has final control. This is how most stuff is done today.

The trend in more tightly regulated industries is now to do everything in CAM software and not modify the code at the machine. It makes sense in some applications (for instance you may be required to know exactly which program made which part years later) but also really takes away from the artistry of the job.

So even though the factory isn't a bunch of robots, the job functions have shifted and become more technical as a result. The technology also allows companies to get better utilization from their production equipment so more parts can be cut without adding a lot of people.

Again, this is just one example, but I think a part of the unemployment problem we have right now is simply a correction as technology is becoming more advanced.

-spence

[scottw]

Originally Posted by spence

A lot of aero manufacturing is done in CT, PA, NY. Some also have offshore plants but the engineering is done in the US. A huge % of the entire aero supply chain is US based...Granted, it's one industry of many, but they're doing well.

Again, this is just one example, but I think a part of the unemployment problem we have right now is simply a correction as technology is becoming more advanced. business aren't "not" hiring because of technology advancements...they're not hiring because the business climate is so uncertain with the knucklehead currently in the Whitehouse...go back and read the comments from the various business leaders that had a lot to say about this

-spence

any actual evidence of this and whether it wll have any real impact? Who is "they"? I did a little searching and...maybe in your little sphere this is true and makes you giddy, but there is nothing to support that this is any kind of positive sign of either a turn around in the economy or a signal that jobs are being or will be created....I'm sure there's a pastry business out there doing well too...but it doesn't mean much in the overall scheme of things...

[scottw]

from the list of top 6 "industries hiring" in 2011


number two....

2. Federal government
While local and state governments have seen their budgets slashed, there's no recession at the federal level. Between new government programs and a wave of baby-boomer civil servants who are retiring, hiring will be huge in government for the next couple of years. It's forecast that 600,000 need to be hired by 2013.

[spence]

Originally Posted by scottw

business aren't "not" hiring because of technology advancements...they're not hiring because the business climate is so uncertain with the knucklehead currently in the Whitehouse.

Uncertainty is one factor.

The bigger picture is a global economy that's bringing tens of millions into the middle class. A lot of those manufacturing and white collar jobs aren't being shipped to China because it's cheaper...it's just that's now where the customer is.

Be it Obama or McCain as POTUS the picture would look pretty much the same on most fronts.

I work across manufacturing industries and have a pretty good position to see what's going on. Innovative companies are doing well, those that sit still are just getting by.

-spence

[scottw]

Originally Posted by spence

Uncertainty is one factor.

it is THE factor...

Small businesses account for two-thirds of all new jobs in America, but within that world, analysts are now increasingly recognizing the role that start-ups play in driving job creation. Economist Ying Lowrey of the Small Business Administration has calculated that new entrepreneurial businesses created 3.5 million new jobs a year between 1997 and 2008, with 1 million of those jobs going to paid employees, and 2.5 million to the entrepreneurs themselves.


7/13/10
"Owners do not trust the economic policies in place or proposed and are distressed by global and national developments that make the future more uncertain," the NFIB said.

"While political leaders trumpet their ideological attempts to remake the economy and save 'small business', more and more ordinary folks are wondering what in the world are they are thinking," the NFIB report stated. "Either policymakers have no idea how to help the economy or they are intentionally committing it to unsustainable expenditure growth and deficits so large that there will be no alternative but to raise taxes, a slow suicide for a dynamic economy."
Nine out of ten small businesses reported that all of their credit needs were met last month, according to the NFIB report. Just six percent of owners said "finance" was their single most important problem. Rather, poor sales, taxes and government red tape took the top three spots.

The bigger picture is a global economy that's bringing tens of millions into the middle class. simply not true.....job creation(the majority) will occur from small businesses...many of whom will not be participating in your "global economy"..make a quick list of the occupations and business that you know and you'll quickly realize that very few participate in the "global economy" or even have any need to

A lot of those manufacturing and white collar jobs aren't being shipped to China because it's cheaper...it's just that's now where the customer is. not true

Be it Obama or McCain as POTUS the picture would look pretty much the same on most fronts.
we've been through this and you have absolutely no evidence to support this

I work across manufacturing industries and have a pretty good position to see what's going on. Innovative companies are doing well, those that sit still are just getting by.
what you have is a very myopic view skewed by political ideaology

-spence

this economy will not turn around until Americans have the confidence in the economic and political environment to invest their time and treasure into entreprenurial endeavuors..it will be small business...very small businesses, that provide the jobs...not your cronie capitalists on a sugar rush from Bernanke that currently bouy your IRA

[striperman36]

Most large corps are showing significant growth outside of the US, the growing middle class in India, China, Far East, not the US is causing significant shift if resources employed by these corporations to be OUTSIDE of the US.

We are the second or third market for most the Fortune 100.

[scottw]

Originally Posted by striperman36

Most large corps are showing significant growth outside of the US, the growing middle class in India, China, Far East, not the US is causing significant shift if resources employed by these corporations to be OUTSIDE of the US.

We are the second or third market for most the Fortune 100.

yes, growth where there are favorable business climates and costs are more certain...

June 3 2010 (Bloomberg) — Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Officer Steven Ballmer said the world’s largest software company would move some employees offshore if Congress enacts President Barack Obama’s plans to impose higher taxes on U.S. companies’ foreign profits.

“It makes U.S. jobs more expensive,” Ballmer said in an interview. “We’re better off taking lots of people and moving them out of the U.S. as opposed to keeping them inside the U.S.”

I know...he's not a "REAL" executive like the one's that Spence talks to every day...but, he has a little experience....


those middle classes are "growing" because US large corps are shifting there and investing because the business climate is better and "cheaper", not simply because the customer is there and our corporations are chasing them as Spence stated...

"A lot of those manufacturing and white collar jobs aren't being shipped to China because it's cheaper...it's just that's now where the customer is." -Spence

we(US corps) are creating and have been creating the growing middle class overseas through investment with jobs that are better paying than what would otherwise be there...it's just a better option for these corps but they are focusing there for many of the same reasons that small business here is lagging in job creation...and that is a crappy business climate here

[spence]

Originally Posted by scottw

those middle classes are "growing" because US large corps are shifting there and investing because the business climate is better and "cheaper", not simply because the customer is there and our corporations are chasing them as Spence stated...

You're ignoring the mega trends that are driving this behavior.

The middle class in China didn't rise simply because US companies were looking for cheap labor. Perhaps the USA's most successful export has been the American Dream. People in countries like China have determined they deserve better, are educating themselves and their Government has changed it's behavior to help enable this change. The influx of US jobs is certainly a factor, but before that you have a craving for cheaply made stuff that started the ball rolling in the first place.

It's a hell of a lot more complicated than just Obama and the corporate tax rate.

we(US corps) are creating and have been creating the growing middle class overseas through investment with jobs that are better paying than what would otherwise be there...it's just a better option for these corps but they are focusing there for many of the same reasons that small business here is lagging in job creation...and that is a crappy business climate here

Don't discount how hungry the young professional class in these emerging nations are to educate themselves and be successful. We're seeing more of this now in North Africa, Iran and likely in more countries who have lived for the past 1/2 century behind closed doors.

Corporations have to manage their assets and resources against variable risks to deliver shareholder value. I'm sure every exec would love to have a low and stable corporate tax rate. But that doesn't mean they're going to turn that benefit into US jobs or value to the US consumer. In a very competitive GLOBAL marketplace they're going to continue to look for any advantage to capture market share...and as SM36 mentioned, the high growth opportunities are for the most part not in the US today.

If we're smart, educate our kids and keep the innovative spirit of America going...we'll be fine in the long run...but we may not dominate like some feel we're entitled to.

-spence