|
The sky is falling
The number of people employed full-time hit an all-time record in May 2022, 132.8 million people.
Americans became the richest ever in Q4 '21, after big stock and housing booms. Real means adjusted for inflation. This is $14 trillion richer than the pre-pandemic peak, an increase of about $107,000 per household on average. The bottom 50% have record wealth too.
Real GDP, the key measure of the size of the economy in terms of income and production, regained the pre-pandemic peak in Q2 '21 and reached the all-time record in Q4'21 at $19.8 trillion. Despite the small drop in Q1 '22, GDP remains 2.8% larger than the pre-pandemic peak.
Corporate profits reached an all-time record in Q1 '22, at $2.74 trillion annualized, up about 30% vs. pre-pandemic. Don't ever say Democrats are bad for business!
Thanks to the Biden Rescue Act, real disposable personal income hit an all-time record in March '21 of $19.1 trillion. This is how much income people have to spend after taxes, annualized. At $15.1 trillion, it's still just above the pre-pandemic peak.
Federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2022 is running 80% lower than prior year, and 43% below the pre-pandemic level (2019). This is record deficit reduction and the main way the Biden Admin is fighting inflation by slowing the economy.
There is record job opportunity, with nearly 2 open jobs per unemployed person as of April '22 (latest data). This is a great time to switch jobs, with a nearly 14% increase in wages since Feb '20 pre-pandemic.
Perhaps the most important measure of economic health, the unemployment rate of 3.6% is just 0.1% from the 50-year low and at or below about 93% of our history back to 1948. Latino and Asian unemployment rates are below the pre-pandemic level.
Job creation rate of 542,000 per month since January 2021 (8.7 milllion total) is a presidential record. About 96% of the jobs lost due to the pandemic have been recovered.
Robust job growth, low unemployment, and record wealth do not a recession make. Federal Reserve Bank of NY estimates about 4% chance of recession in next year, assuming Fed doesn't overdo it on interest rate hikes.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
|
Threaded Mode