This Market...

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Ian

Interesting stance given the state of things today...

Sorry, obviously the market also needs people out spending money, that's a given. That's all that's missing right now, and it's not missing because of anything that Trump or Obama did or didn't do.

My other point is that our stock market was not insanely overpriced when the DJIA was at 29,000. All you have to do, is look at the P/E ratios or any other valuation. Not saying it was undervalued, but when the DJIA was at its peak, Warren Buffet said he thought the S&P 500 was a terrific bet if you had 5-10 years time. But what does he know?

The tech bubble was irrational when it burst. The housing bubble was irrational when it burst. Our economy, in a macro sense, was not an irrational bubble waiting to burst when this hit. Anyone who says otherwise, is lying because they have a political agenda. It was a very, very strong and robust economy.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Anyone who says otherwise, is lying because they have a political agenda. It was a very, very strong and robust economy.

Can facts lie and have a political agenda?

PE was over 20 at end of 2019 while historical mean was about 16.


Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 87% to 155%, depending on the indicator, up from 82% to 148% the previous month.
Feb 6, 2020

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Can facts lie and have a political agenda?

PE was over 20 at end of 2019 while historical mean was about 16.


Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 87% to 155%, depending on the indicator, up from 82% to 148% the previous month.
Feb 6, 2020

I looked at a few charts, that PE ratio of 20 looks below average since 1990. Not sure ratios from 1930 - 1970 are as pertinent, but maybe they are...

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-...earnings-chart

[Ian]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Sorry, obviously the market also needs people out spending money, that's a given. That's all that's missing right now, and it's not missing because of anything that Trump or Obama did or didn't do.

My other point is that our stock market was not insanely overpriced when the DJIA was at 29,000. All you have to do, is look at the P/E ratios or any other valuation. Not saying it was undervalued, but when the DJIA was at its peak, Warren Buffet said he thought the S&P 500 was a terrific bet if you had 5-10 years time. But what does he know?

The tech bubble was irrational when it burst. The housing bubble was irrational when it burst. Our economy, in a macro sense, was not an irrational bubble waiting to burst when this hit. Anyone who says otherwise, is lying because they have a political agenda. It was a very, very strong and robust economy.

There are a number of people who believe this market has all kinds of issues...

Overvaluation
Corporate debt bubble about to burst like the private mortgage bubble did
Etc

It’s really hard to take a look at what the market has done the past 4 years and say there wasn’t an inflated nature to it. There was nothing gradual about the journey to the level we just crashed from
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Ian

There are a number of people who believe this market has all kinds of issues...

Overvaluation
Corporate debt bubble about to burst like the private mortgage bubble did
Etc

It’s really hard to take a look at what the market has done the past 4 years and say there wasn’t an inflated nature to it. There was nothing gradual about the journey to the level we just crashed from
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

it’s not hard if you look at p/e ratios over the last 30 years. other than hating trump, i’m not sure on what basis you’d conclude that the economy was irrationally overvalued a month ago.

the crash had little to do with where we were, or how we got there. we got hit with an outside force that no one predicted.

I live in CT, a state that has been a 40 year experiment in pure, unchecked liberalism. The result? One of the richest states in the nation has unfunded debt equal
to four times annual revenue, and people are fleeing.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[Ian]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

it’s not hard if you look at p/e ratios over the last 30 years. other than hating trump, i’m not sure on what basis you’d conclude that the economy was irrationally overvalued a month ago.

the crash had little to do with where we were, or how we got there. we got hit with an outside force that no one predicted.

I live in CT, a state that has been a 40 year experiment in pure, unchecked liberalism. The result? One of the richest states in the nation has unfunded debt equal
to four times annual revenue, and people are fleeing.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

I never said this was Trump's fault, though I think some of the policies and speculation driven by his style of leadership certainly added explosive fuel to an already out of control fire...

But I'm surprised you're picking "this market was stable as hell" as the hill to die on here...

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Ian

I never said this was Trump's fault, though I think some of the policies and speculation driven by his style of leadership certainly added explosive fuel to an already out of control fire...

But I'm surprised you're picking "this market was stable as hell" as the hill to die on here...

our economy was rock solid
by almost any measure. i’m not dying in any hill, just stating what the data and most experts were saying. no market can survive people not being able
to spend money. consumer
spending is a key.

i don’t see this drop as any indication of economic weakness. markets were up, companies
making solid profits and growing, unemployment at historic lows, low inflation, gdp increasing, energy independence, jobs numbers crushing expectations, wages rising, where were the red flags?

I agree on trumps personal style.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device