An Unusually Warm and Wet Spring: Threat or Menace?

[Crafty Angler]

Originally Posted by Sweetwater

I'm still trying to decide which is worse, a "threat" or a "menace."

...

Well, the thread title was a little tongue-in-cheek but if nothing else I'm old enough to have made a few observations lately that seem to put things out of the norm

I did see that water temps at the Castle Hill NOAA buoy are at 54 degrees today and it is a deep water location - I don't know, I think keeping a weather eye out this year will be prudent if nothing else

The current El Nino is also out of the norm, too, as follows:

Keep reading for more on the not-so-straightforward relationship between El Nino and hurricane season...

The study details a slightly different form of tropical Pacific Ocean warming that may previously have been mistaken for El Nino. This type of warming is referred to as central Pacific warming or El Nino "modiki" -- the Japanese word meaning "same, but different" -- and may actually juice up the Atlantic hurricane season. The study found that since the early 1990s, El Nino modiki events have been occurring with increasing frequency compared to traditional El Nino episodes, although the reasons for this are unclear.

A traditional El Nino event is characterized by abnormally warm water temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, as well as altered air flow across the Pacific Ocean. El Nino modiki events feature unusually warm water located further to the west, in the central Pacific near the International Date Line. Although the two events are quite similar, the authors found that the difference in location of the warmer waters can have profound ramifications for residents in hurricane-prone areas of the United States, Caribbean and Central America.

By examining correlations between the North Atlantic hurricane season, both in terms of where storms tracked and the number of storms that formed in a given year, and the different types of Pacific Ocean warming events, the researchers found that central Pacific warming is associated with increased numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes. An analysis of hurricane damages by Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado at Boulder found that U.S. storm damages were greater in El Nino modiki years than in El Nino years.

"...we cannot assume that because there is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that there will be a decrease of tropical cyclones. It depends very much on the location of the warming," said co-author Peter J. Webster in an e-mail conversation.

Previous research had shown that El Nino events tend to cause wind shear -- winds blowing at different directions and/or speeds at different altitudes -- to increase over the areas where tropical storms and hurricanes typically form in the Atlantic. Strong wind shear can prevent a tropical storm or hurricane from developing or keep it from intensifying.

However, according to the new study, central Pacific warming events do not increase wind shear over the hurricane-formation regions of the Atlantic Ocean, and therefore are more favorable for storm development.

I'll also admit that after a certain age you'll find yourself sitting on the sofa in your underwear a lot watching The Weather Channel - hey, it's what old guys do

On the other hand, when my brother in law (ex-commercial electrician and now an industrial robotics engineer) comes out to visit in May I am gonna have him help me wire in the generator for the house we've talked about for years

[chrisjoe13]

This might be the last week to do yard work without the menacing Black Fly. I'm surprised to have not seen any yet. I hate them.

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by Crafty Angler

...

Well, the thread title was a little tongue-in-cheek but if nothing else I'm old enough to have made a few observations lately that seem to put things out of the norm

I did see that water temps at the Castle Hill NOAA buoy are at 54 degrees today and it is a deep water location - I don't know, I think keeping a weather eye out this year will be prudent if nothing else

The current El Nino is also out of the norm, too, as follows:

Keep reading for more on the not-so-straightforward relationship between El Nino and hurricane season...

The study details a slightly different form of tropical Pacific Ocean warming that may previously have been mistaken for El Nino. This type of warming is referred to as central Pacific warming or El Nino "modiki" -- the Japanese word meaning "same, but different" -- and may actually juice up the Atlantic hurricane season. The study found that since the early 1990s, El Nino modiki events have been occurring with increasing frequency compared to traditional El Nino episodes, although the reasons for this are unclear.

A traditional El Nino event is characterized by abnormally warm water temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, as well as altered air flow across the Pacific Ocean. El Nino modiki events feature unusually warm water located further to the west, in the central Pacific near the International Date Line. Although the two events are quite similar, the authors found that the difference in location of the warmer waters can have profound ramifications for residents in hurricane-prone areas of the United States, Caribbean and Central America.

By examining correlations between the North Atlantic hurricane season, both in terms of where storms tracked and the number of storms that formed in a given year, and the different types of Pacific Ocean warming events, the researchers found that central Pacific warming is associated with increased numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes. An analysis of hurricane damages by Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado at Boulder found that U.S. storm damages were greater in El Nino modiki years than in El Nino years.

"...we cannot assume that because there is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that there will be a decrease of tropical cyclones. It depends very much on the location of the warming," said co-author Peter J. Webster in an e-mail conversation.

Previous research had shown that El Nino events tend to cause wind shear -- winds blowing at different directions and/or speeds at different altitudes -- to increase over the areas where tropical storms and hurricanes typically form in the Atlantic. Strong wind shear can prevent a tropical storm or hurricane from developing or keep it from intensifying.

However, according to the new study, central Pacific warming events do not increase wind shear over the hurricane-formation regions of the Atlantic Ocean, and therefore are more favorable for storm development.

I'll also admit that after a certain age you'll find yourself sitting on the sofa in your underwear a lot watching The Weather Channel - hey, it's what old guys do

On the other hand, when my brother in law (ex-commercial electrician and now an industrial robotics engineer) comes out to visit in May I am gonna have him help me wire in the generator for the house we've talked about for years

It's that plastic island in the middle of the pacific changin the weather patterns by heating up the surrounding air.