No gun problem in the US

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

In 2012, the NYPD made more than 532,000 stops, each of which could progress to a frisk or to a full search. The police found guns only 715 times. In other words, guns were found during 0.1 percent of stops.

If the cops weren't doing anything else at that specific time, removing 715 illegally carried guns in one year, seems like a worthwhile use of time. Until the bad guys start wearing signs that announce their intentions, unfortunately we need to cast the net pretty wide. What's a more efficient way to get illegal guns of the street? Ask criminals to pretty please turn themselves in? Chicago and DC in recent past had very tough restrictions on gun ownership, did that help gun crime more than the things Rudy did?

Put stop and frisk, specifically, aside. Did murder rates drop meaningfully during Rudy's tenure Paul? Did he do a great job with violent crime? In the 5-6 years begore Rudy was sworn in, NYC had about 2500 murders a year. By the time he left, it was under 1,000 a year. Rapes went from 5,000 per year to 3,500. Robberies from over 100,000 per year to under 40,000. Total violent crimes from over 200,000 per year to under 100,000.

Maybe stop and frisk had zero impact. But obviously in aggregate, the things he did, helped. Why in Gods name would we willfully choose to ignore that, because we don't like the party he is affiliated with?

We would all (conservatives included) do well to put ideology aside, focus on results. Look at what has worked, and do more of that. Look at what doesn't work, and stop doing it. Why is that so hard?

https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

If the cops weren't doing anything else at that specific time, removing 715 illegally carried guns in one year, seems like a worthwhile use of time. Until the bad guys start wearing signs that announce their intentions, unfortunately we need to cast the net pretty wide. What's a more efficient way to get illegal guns of the street? Ask criminals to pretty please turn themselves in? Chicago and DC in recent past had very tough restrictions on gun ownership, did that help gun crime more than the things Rudy did?

Put stop and frisk, specifically, aside. Did murder rates drop meaningfully during Rudy's tenure Paul? Did he do a great job with violent crime? In the 5-6 years begore Rudy was sworn in, NYC had about 2500 murders a year. By the time he left, it was under 1,000 a year. Rapes went from 5,000 per year to 3,500. Robberies from over 100,000 per year to under 40,000. Total violent crimes from over 200,000 per year to under 100,000.

Maybe stop and frisk had zero impact. But obviously in aggregate, the things he did, helped. Why in Gods name would we willfully choose to ignore that, because we don't like the party he is affiliated with?

We would all (conservatives included) do well to put ideology aside, focus on results. Look at what has worked, and do more of that. Look at what doesn't work, and stop doing it. Why is that so hard?

https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm

Murder (and all crimes) dropped across the whole US - not only in NY. Rates started to fall before stop and frisk and continued to fall after S&F was stopped. Criminologist argue over the reasons with probably 10 -15 being listed. Some that people agreed on previously have been called into question. One that is lately getting more study is the decrease in lead in gas. There is/was no smoking gun that is an answer.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/nycrime.htm

FYI - Rudy was mayor from 1994 to 2001. It looks like most crimes started to go down a few year before he became mayor and continued to decrease after Rudy.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

FYI - Rudy was mayor from 1994 to 2001. It looks like most crimes started to go down a few year before he became mayor and continued to decrease after Rudy.

When you say "it looks like", what were you looking at? You got data that shows that NYC's crime drop didn't stick out?

I googled that question, saw this article.

University of California isn't known as a right-wing school last time I checked. Yet a law professor there said NYC's crime drop under Rudy "one of the most remarkable stories in the history of urban crime".

https://www.city-journal.org/html/ho...ory-13197.html

Here is another article. From the article:

"During the 1990s, crime rates in New York City dropped dramatically, even more than in the United States as a whole. Violent crime declined by more than 56 percent in the City, compared to about 28 percent in the nation as whole."

Meaning, NYC saw a drop that was exactly double the nationwide average.

During the 1990s, crime rates in New York City dropped dramatically, even more than in the United States as a whole. Violent crime declined by more than 56 percent in the City, compared to about 28 percent in the nation as whole.

But Rudy was a Republican, and even worse, a Trump ally. He can't have done anything good.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

When you say "it looks like", what were you looking at? I looked at the chart you linked. You got data that shows that NYC's crime drop didn't stick out?

I googled that question, saw this article.

University of California isn't known as a right-wing school last time I checked. Yet a law professor there said NYC's crime drop under Rudy "one of the most remarkable stories in the history of urban crime".

https://www.city-journal.org/html/ho...ory-13197.html

Here is another article. From the article:

"During the 1990s, crime rates in New York City dropped dramatically, even more than in the United States as a whole. Violent crime declined by more than 56 percent in the City, compared to about 28 percent in the nation as whole."

Meaning, NYC saw a drop that was exactly double the nationwide average.

During the 1990s, crime rates in New York City dropped dramatically, even more than in the United States as a whole. Violent crime declined by more than 56 percent in the City, compared to about 28 percent in the nation as whole.

But Rudy was a Republican, and even worse, a Trump ally. He can't have done anything good.

The crime rates (according to the chart YOU linked) started to decline BEFORE Rudy was Mayor and continued AFTER Rudy was no longer Mayor.

So it has nothing to do with Rudy being a Republican or "even worse" a Trump ally.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

The crime rates (according to the chart YOU linked) started to decline BEFORE Rudy was Mayor and continued AFTER Rudy was no longer Mayor.

So it has nothing to do with Rudy being a Republican or "even worse" a Trump ally.

if his policies were left in place after he left office ( which i think? they largely were by Bloomberg), why wouldn’t the improvement continue?

he’s a republican, we get it, he can’t have good ideas

Paul, what’s happening with crime in chicago? is it all republicans committing the murders?
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[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

if his policies were left in place after he left office ( which i think? they largely were by Bloomberg), why wouldn’t the improvement continue?

he’s a republican, we get it, he can’t have good ideasso you were just proved wrong in that stop and frisk wasn't the only answer so you come back with the tired "all Repub. bad" response.

Paul, what’s happening with crime in chicago? is it all republicans committing the murders?
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I have no idea who is committing all the murders in Chicago other than they are bad people and that the majority of guns used in crimes come from other states. Is it Dems? and how do you know how they voted in the last election?

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

A bunch of police officers standing outside the school, while the shooting is going on, parents pleading for them to go in, pretty much demolishes the argument about the good guy with a gun saving anyone.
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A bunch of police officers did not go into the school after him, and stopped parents from going in. So good guys with guns did not stop that until, from what I understand, an off duty Border Patrol officer went in and killed the murderer, getting shot in the process. So a good guy with a gun DID end it after other marginally not good guys with guns (and body armor and rifles) held the parents back.

Originally Posted by Pete F.

An important thing to understand is that most people who have murdered large numbers of human beings were not mentally ill in any way
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Large numbers like Stalin and Hitler? Or like Lanza, Ramos, Holmes, and Cruz?

Originally Posted by PaulS

I have no idea who is committing all the murders in Chicago other than they are bad people and that the majority of guns used in crimes come from other states. Is it Dems? and how do you know how they voted in the last election?

They are almost certainly not Republicans because there are so few remaining in the city to pick from.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

I have no idea who is committing all the murders in Chicago other than they are bad people and that the majority of guns used in crimes come from other states. Is it Dems? and how do you know how they voted in the last election?

The fact that gun crime is high in Chicago in part because of guns from elsewhere, is exactly why additional gun control laws aren't likely to work, unless you have a way of confiscating the 400 million that are out there, which isn't even worth discussing. Those guns are out there, and they aren't going away, and they are the reason why additional gun control isn't the silver bullet that the left says it is.

We need more than gun control. Way more.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

The crime rates (according to the chart YOU linked) started to decline BEFORE Rudy was Mayor and continued AFTER Rudy was no longer Mayor.

So it has nothing to do with Rudy being a Republican or "even worse" a Trump ally.

OK, Like you said, I looked at my data, compared the decrease in murder and total violent crime from 1993 (last year before Rudy) to 2001 (Rudy's last year), for NYC and the whole country.

For murders over that time, NYC saw a 60% drop (from 2,420 to 960) while the US saw a 35% drop (from 24,530 to 16,037).

For total violent crime, NYC saw a 50% drop (from 195,352 to 98,022). The US saw a drop of 25% (from 1,926,020 to 1,439,480).

Why did NYC see better decreases than the rest of the country? The difference is even more stark, because the US numbers include NYC. If you were to exclude the NYC numbers from the nationwide numbers, NYC would look even better than "US excluding NYC".

So why did NYC see vastly more improvement?

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

OK, Like you said, I looked at my data, compared the decrease in murder and total violent crime from 1993 (last year before Rudy) to 2001 (Rudy's last year), for NYC and the whole country.

For murders over that time, NYC saw a 60% drop (from 2,420 to 960) while the US saw a 35% drop (from 24,530 to 16,037).

For total violent crime, NYC saw a 50% drop (from 195,352 to 98,022). The US saw a drop of 25% (from 1,926,020 to 1,439,480).

Why did NYC see better decreases than the rest of the country? The difference is even more stark, because the US numbers include NYC. If you were to exclude the NYC numbers from the nationwide numbers, NYC would look even better than "US excluding NYC".

So why did NYC see vastly more improvement?

Compstat
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