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Originally Posted by justplugit
At this point does it matter who's fault it is, except to learn from the past ?
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By unofficial counts, there were about three dozen strategists, pundits and wordsmiths who visibly called the credit crisis before it happened. I am privileged to be one of them, although I don't put myself in the same category of a publishing market strategist.
I do this sort of stuff for a living. Generally, if you can predict something to happen, with any degree of accuracy, you have a pretty good idea of what caused it to happen, regardless of what other people might be thinking or speculating after the fact.
Of the rabble (bankers and politicians) who don't like to have fingers pointed at them ... I quote Lord Keynes, who for once said something sensible:
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A sound banker (or politician), alas, is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him.
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Translation: "We didn't see it coming, everybody else didn't see it coming, so ya can't blame us because it happened."
For the love of God, folks, wake up. First rule of investing is ... don't lose money.
I'll quote a seasoned portfolio manager, a genuine stock market pro with decades of experience, with whom I had the privilege of having lunch with last week:
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Folks nearing retirement age who bailed on the stock market when it blew up in '08 ... will NEVER earn their money back.
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Let that sink in.