Ukraine

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

See you can't help yourself.

i’ve asked you point blank about some comments from lefties, you responded point blank that you didn’t care. you only care when others engage in it.

selective outrage, is fake outrage.
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[Got Stripers]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Wonder if this is the reason the convoy is stalled - cheap Chinese tires:

Trent Telenko, a retired Pentagon staff specialist and military history blogger, suggests another big reason may be Russia's tires, as he explained in a long, illustrated Twitter thread based on photos of deserted Russian Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile systems and his own experience as a U.S. Army vehicle auditor. "When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end," the sidewalls get brittle in the sun and fail like the tires on the Pantsir-SR, he wrote. "No one exercised that vehicle for one year."

Karl Muth, an economist, government adviser, and self-described "tire expert," jumped in, agreeing with Telenko but adding some details about the tires.

"There is a huge operational level implication in this," Telenko said. "If the Russian Army was too corrupt to exercise a Pantsir-S1, they were too corrupt to exercise the trucks and wheeled [armored fighting vehicles] now in Ukraine," meaning "the Russians simply cannot risk them off-road during the Rasputitsa/mud season." That is a problem for the convoy in the north, he added. "The Crimea is a desert and the South Ukrainian coastal areas are dryer. So we are not seeing this there. But elsewhere the Russians have a huge problem for the next 4 to 6 weeks." Read Telenko's whole thread on Twitter.

It certainly appears the Russians have a big problem or multiple problems, it’s to bad they haven’t got the drones to take out the forward areas of that convoy and create a major bottleneck. Hopefully we have some covert supply operations ongoing to get those weapons to the front.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

i’ve asked you point blank about some comments from lefties, you responded point blank that you didn’t care. you only care when others engage in it.

selective outrage, is fake outrage.
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Hilarious.

That is right. Why should I care what others do? You insult me, I'll insult you back. Just bc you can't control yourself and bc you get in a pissing contest w/someone else you think it's appropriate to insult anyone else shows what type of person you are.

[scottw]

Originally Posted by Got Stripers

It certainly appears the Russians have a big problem or multiple problems,

these things don't typically go smoothly....

[scottw]

Originally Posted by PaulS

You insult me, I'll insult you back.

you two are adorable....

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by scottw

these things don't typically go smoothly....

no, hopefully it continues to be a big disappointment.
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[JohnR]

Originally Posted by scottw

1/3rd of Taiwan mysteriously lost power...that's weird

Saw that. Rumored to be a failure at one station cascading to others.

Originally Posted by wdmso

Just a friendly FYI

I didn't pass these anti protest Laws those states did ... and we know why those laws were passed and (your BLM reference says it all) it's a slippery slope and it all starts somewhere..

But Truckers blocking roadways is supported by the same party who passed these .. funny how that works

Your slippery slope is not OK but yours is. Got it. Or is it both sides?

Originally Posted by PaulS

Wonder if this is the reason the convoy is stalled - cheap Chinese tires:

Trent Telenko, a retired Pentagon staff specialist and military history blogger, suggests another big reason may be Russia's tires, as he explained in a long, illustrated Twitter thread based on photos of deserted Russian Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile systems and his own experience as a U.S. Army vehicle auditor. "When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end," the sidewalls get brittle in the sun and fail like the tires on the Pantsir-SR, he wrote. "No one exercised that vehicle for one year."

Karl Muth, an economist, government adviser, and self-described "tire expert," jumped in, agreeing with Telenko but adding some details about the tires.

"There is a huge operational level implication in this," Telenko said. "If the Russian Army was too corrupt to exercise a Pantsir-S1, they were too corrupt to exercise the trucks and wheeled [armored fighting vehicles] now in Ukraine," meaning "the Russians simply cannot risk them off-road during the Rasputitsa/mud season." That is a problem for the convoy in the north, he added. "The Crimea is a desert and the South Ukrainian coastal areas are dryer. So we are not seeing this there. But elsewhere the Russians have a huge problem for the next 4 to 6 weeks." Read Telenko's whole thread on Twitter.

It was a fascinating read, that the Cheap Chinese knock off tires of the expensive Michellins are of subpar manufacture and simply breaking in the mud.

[spence]

Originally Posted by JohnR

It was a fascinating read, that the Cheap Chinese knock off tires of the expensive Michellins are of subpar manufacture and simply breaking in the mud.

And MRE's five years past their expiration date. We need a gofundme to help these kids.

[Pete F.]

So, nuclear weapons are the big threat.

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Plant spokesman says Russian troops have begun shelling Europe's largest nuclear power station in Ukraine.
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[JohnR]

Battle is going right now on the power station grounds.

[Pete F.]

But, because there might be nuclear war if we do something, we hesitate and let Putin destroy any semblance of rational policy because if we did he might kill us sooner rather than later.
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[wdmso]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Battle is going right now on the power station grounds.

Yep they’re going after the power infrastructure. Not to stop military production . But punish the population and their defiance
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Battle is going right now on the power station grounds.

what could go wrong there?
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[detbuch]

Could it be that John Mearsheimer in the video that Scott posted earlier in this thread is right? Putin simply wants to wreck what's left of Ukraine rather than occupying it or incorporating it into Russia in a sort of new Soviet Union?

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

But, because there might be nuclear war if we do something, we hesitate and let Putin destroy any semblance of rational policy because if we did he might kill us sooner rather than later.
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Yes, Pete. There will probably be nuclear war, at some level, if NATO intervenes. Probably not a small one.

Originally Posted by wdmso

Yep they’re going after the power infrastructure. Not to stop military production . But punish the population and their defiance
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They are wrecking everything. Punitive invasion then occupation.

[scottw]

that video with biden telling us how putin doesn't want ole' joe to be president because putin is scared of ole' toe to toe joe...isn't aging well...

[Pete F.]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Yes, Pete. There will probably be nuclear war, at some level, if NATO intervenes. Probably not a small one.

History repeats
There was a great interview with Fiona Hill in Politico

The more we talk, the more we’re using World War II analogies. There are people who are saying we’re on the brink of a World War III.

Hill: We’re already in it. We have been for some time. We keep thinking of World War I, World War II as these huge great big set pieces, but World War II was a consequence of World War I. And we had an interwar period between them. And in a way, we had that again after the Cold War. Many of the things that we’re talking about here have their roots in the carving up of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Russian Empire at the end of World War I. At the end of World War II, we had another reconfiguration and some of the issues that we have been dealing with recently go back to that immediate post-war period. We’ve had war in Syria, which is in part the consequence of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, same with Iraq and Kuwait.

All of the conflicts that we’re seeing have roots in those earlier conflicts. We are already in a hot war over Ukraine, which started in 2014. People shouldn’t delude themselves into thinking that we’re just on the brink of something. We’ve been well and truly in it for quite a long period of time.

But this is also a full-spectrum information war, and what happens in a Russian “all-of-society” war, you soften up the enemy. You get the Tucker Carlsons and Donald Trumps doing your job for you. The fact that Putin managed to persuade Trump that Ukraine belongs to Russia, and that Trump would be willing to give up Ukraine without any kind of fight, that’s a major success for Putin’s information war. I mean he has got swathes of the Republican Party — and not just them, some on the left, as well as on the right — masses of the U.S. public saying, “Good on you, Vladimir Putin,” or blaming NATO, or blaming the U.S. for this outcome. This is exactly what a Russian information war and psychological operation is geared towards. He’s been carefully seeding this terrain as well. We’ve been at war, for a very long time. I’ve been saying this for years.
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[Pete F.]

Here will be the next Russian weapon against Ukraine and blaming 🇺🇸

“Giant red flag here. The risk of CW use is real. “Offering no evidence, Lavrov said Russia had information that the United States was worried about the prospect of losing control over what he described as chemical & biological laboratories in Ukraine”
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[wdmso]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60532634

Russian helicopter shot down. Looks like a stinger

I bet the Russians flew the same route daily or frequent enough and gave them and perfect set up. To shoot

Surprised there was a single bird. and they weren’t flying in pairs ?

Saw the same thing in Iraq with IED attacks , there was usually a cameraman man in the area for an attack
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[JohnR]

Ukraine has definitely been punching up.

Waiting for photos but hearing UA Marines took out 2 dozen helicopters at a captured base outside Kherson.

GoogleEarth shows the base had 40 helicopters from before the latest invasion so could mean a lot of different things.

[wdmso]

Seem Putin's next phase is Push refugees west and cause a humanity crisis in Nato Countries similar to the exodus from Syria . in Hope the Local Nationalist population in these countries will create turmoil

[Nebe]

I just read an article that said that a Russian spokesman said that they would stop shelling and cease operations if Ukraine recognized crimea and the other 2 break away regions as independent states and if Ukraine re wrote their constitution to create a neutral country. Seems logical to me and I hope this #^&#^&#^&#^& ends soon.


https://www.reuters.com/world/kremli...ts-2022-03-07/

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[spence]

Originally Posted by Nebe

I just read an article that said that a Russian spokesman said that they would stop shelling and cease operations if Ukraine recognized crimea and the other 2 break away regions as independent states and if Ukraine re wrote their constitution to create a neutral country. Seems logical to me and I hope this #^&#^&#^&#^& ends soon.


https://www.reuters.com/world/kremli...ts-2022-03-07/

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Putin wants to upend world order. This wouldn't serve that goal. I'm a lot more pessimistic than I was 6 days ago. At least we've learned the Russians can't fight a conventional war.

[Nebe]

Putang wanted to upend world order. Then he realized that the world would cancel everything Russian.
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[PaulS]

Originally Posted by spence

Putin wants to upend world order. This wouldn't serve that goal. I'm a lot more pessimistic than I was 6 days ago. At least we've learned the Russians can't fight a conventional war.

I read numerous articles calling the Russian army a potamkin army. Putin has shattered the myth of Russian army strength.
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[Got Stripers]

Originally Posted by PaulS

I read numerous articles calling the Russian army a potamkin army. Putin has shattered the myth of Russian army strength.
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Which unfortunately makes him even scarier, if his only big stick now is his nuclear arsenal.

[scottw]

^^^ some impressive insight..... kamala level genius

[wdmso]

A senior Russian military commander has been killed in a battle on the edge of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, Ukraine's defence ministry says.
Maj-Gen Vitaly Gerasimov, 41st Army chief of staff, died along with other Russian officers, the report says.

It’s seems the Russians only have pockets of control , if the Ukraine troops move in and out of areas killing Generals

And I don’t think the Russian army has an NCO Corp and with out them when you just have officers who know the operation objectives . when they die or get removed from the battle no one knows what to do next

And we might be see this working in real time
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[PaulS]

temps expected to drop to 20 below. Will make it tough for people trying to escape. it will make it easier for things that now are getting stuck in the mud but hopefully make it more miserable for the Russian soldiers sitting around in their vehicles.

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by Nebe

I just read an article that said that a Russian spokesman said that they would stop shelling and cease operations if Ukraine recognized crimea and the other 2 break away regions as independent states and if Ukraine re wrote their constitution to create a neutral country. Seems logical to me and I hope this #^&#^&#^&#^& ends soon.


https://www.reuters.com/world/kremli...ts-2022-03-07/

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Logical?

Originally Posted by Got Stripers

Which unfortunately makes him even scarier, if his only big stick now is his nuclear arsenal.

Yep.

Best we just keep doing what we are doing, filtered ISR, providing weapons support. Extra support NATO countries bordering Ukraine.