Media Coverage Of Politics

[JohnnyD]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Of course it did. PaulS won't want to admit that, because that would be admitting that Obama was dead wrong when he said costs would come down.

PaulS and spence talk in obtuse language with no detail when supporting Obama's policies... why?

Because when you are clear, detailed and support points with facts (as opposed to fluffy, feel-good conjecture or spence's "zingers") it is clear that the end results do not support Obama's propaganda.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by JohnnyD

PaulS and spence talk in obtuse language with no detail when supporting Obama's policies... why?

Because when you are clear, detailed and support points with facts (as opposed to fluffy, feel-good conjecture or spence's "zingers") it is clear that the end results do not support Obama's propaganda.

I've provided you lots of detail by stating what has already been implemented and you have not provided one bit of evidence to support your statement that your costs have increased $2,500 b/c of Obamacare. Is this evidence of the emotions Buckman mentioned in an earlier post? No evidence, just a feeling Obamacare has caused your costs to increase?

[justplugit]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Of course it did. PaulS won't want to admit that, because that would be admitting that Obama was dead wrong when he said costs would come down.

Yes costs would come down and any increases would be offset by computerizing
and streamlining the system.
BTW, when will Obamacare be defunded as promised by some members of Congress if it was voted in?

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by justplugit

Yes costs would come down and any increases would be offset by computerizing
and streamlining the system.
BTW, when will Obamacare be defunded as promised by some members of Congress if it was voted in?

Installing computers will not offset the increased costs of keeping kids on parents' plans till age 26, of abolishing lifetime caps on insurance benefits, of or abolish bans based on pre-existing conditions. Streamlining will save some money to be sure, but nowhere near enough to oiffset the increased costs that are a direct result of increasing the benefits.

I'm in favor of getting rid of bans for pre-existing conditions by the way, I think it's the ethical thing to do. And I'm willing to pay a tax hike for that. I just don't want Obama telling me he can wave his magic hand and add all that while lowering costs. If the Medicare system 'goes paperless', that will save money. Those savings will be dwarfed by the increased costs.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by JohnnyD

First, I'm self-employed. I don't have the luxury of "working for a larger employer" and like the millions of other small businesses in this country, I can shop rates but do not have the luxury of increasing employee contribution like what happens with those "larger employers". Also, concerning those larger employers and how "the new mandates... didn't impact the cost that much", are you forgetting the whole part of mandate allowing offspring to be on their parent's insurance through 26 years old? I guarantee something like that had a major impact for self-insured businesses.

Estimated cost to cover to age 26 from age 19 range from 0.5% of claims to 1.5% of claims. If the policy had students covered to age 23, this would have increased costs 0.9%. And if the policy had students covered to 25, the new regs. would cost an est. 0.7%. So again, where did the $2,500 you stated come from?

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Estimated cost to cover to age 26 from age 19 range from 0.5% of claims to 1.5% of claims.

Where did you get this data?

Let's say I have a typical policy for my wife and I, total cost is around $900 a month for a middle-aged couple (that includes what the employee pays, as well as what the employer pays, in other words, the total cost of a health insurance policy).

Let's say that now, because of Obamacare, I have to include coverage to my 25 year-old son. If I assume the high-end of your estimate (1.5%), you're telling me that adding my son only adds $13.50 a month to the cost of my policy(.015 x 900 = 13.5)??

No way, PaulS, no way...

A healthy 25 year-old will pay hundreds of dollars a month for a typical health insurance policy. Not $13.50. That is much more than the 1.5% increase you cited.

Johnny D, you are pretty young, and I believe self-insured. When you were 25, could you get a health insurance policy for $13.50 a month? Maybe in Zimbabwe, not in America.

[Jim in CT]

Paul S -

You didn't say costs would go down, but you did absolutely say they wouldn't go up much. And I've given you actuarial est. of the increases - none of them would justify a $2,500 increase in Johnny's premium. And across the country, people's healthcare costs are rising by much more than the rate of inflation. And they have for many, many years You said companies aren't ramping up premiums because of Obamacare. What's your proof of that? The minimum loss ratio law. Companies have to now give return premium if the claims don't hit a minimum loss ratio. Did you conduct a survey of all the largest companies, talk to the Employee Benefits department, and find out how much of the % increases are due to Obamacare? No, but has Johhny or you provided 1 piece of evidence to back his claim that costs went up $2,500 b/c of Obamacare? Or are you speculating, and making assumptions that are favorable to the man you support?I've posted what has been implemented so far and the est. claim cost increase of each. So that isn't speculation.

"I've given you actuarial est. of the increases "

You posted some numbers without any links. I am a credentialed actuary, though I don't work in healthcare. There is no way that adding a 26 year-old to an "average" policy is only a 1.5% rate increase for an "average" couple. If that was true, kids that age could get health insurance policies for $25 a month, and they can't.

"And they have (health costs have gone up) for many, many years "

Ah. But Obama was the one claimed he could reverse that trend. And he didn't.

"The minimum loss ratio law. Companies have to now give return premium if the claims don't hit a minimum loss ratio"

That's not really anything new. Before Obama descended from the heavens, healthcare was already highly regulated by states. Companies already had to release their combined ratios to justify rate levels.

Companies are raising rates. If this loss ratio law has any teeth, these companies must truly believe that they need the higher rates, right?

"has Johhny or you provided 1 piece of evidence to back his claim that costs went up $2,500 b/c of Obamacare?"

I made no such claim. You made the claim that the effect of Obamacare has a negligible impact on loss costs. You typed in some numbers with no link to any study. And your numbers make no sense whatsoever.

Paul, please show me where a 25 year-old can get a healthcare policy for 1.5% of what his parents pay for a policy? Show me a policy for a typical middle-aged couple, that only increases in price by 1.5% by adding a 25 year-old? Show me that, and I will admit you are correct. Good luck with that.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

The benefit exchanges won't start until 2014 so the impact of covering the uninsured won't happen for a while although I understand what you're saying about ramping up premiums (but don't believe that is happening). There are regs. in place so currently on a fully insured plan, the insurer has to refund $s to the comp./emp. if the loss ratio is lower than the regs. If you work for a larger employer, you're probably self insured and the new mandates that have been already put in place didn't impact the cost that much. Supposedly there is a long article in Time mag. about how costs at hospitals are out of control - and that has nothing to do w/Obama care.

And Johnny's said that his cost went up in 2012 $2,500 b/c of Obamacare (not what will happen in 2014).

"If you work for a larger employer, you're probably self insured and the new mandates that have been already put in place didn't impact the cost that much."

Huh? If I run a large compoany that self-insures, these changes increase my expected loss costs by the same amount as they would increase if I was a health insurance company. Large companies that self insure, typically self-insure the lower end of costs. They buy insurance policies for the catastrophic stuff. And their employees pay a portion of the premium.

Paul, you keep making assumptions (like you don't believe premiums are being ramped up, and that if you work for a large company, your premiums haven't gone up much) that are wild speculation at best, demonstrably false at worst.

Healthcare costs are not going down as the Messiah promised they would.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

"If you work for a larger employer, you're probably self insured and the new mandates that have been already put in place didn't impact the cost that much."

Huh? If I run a large compoany that self-insures, these changes increase my expected loss costs by the same amount as they would increase if I was a health insurance companyYes, for the items that apply to both fully insured and self funded - but not all of them do. . Large companies that self insure, typically self-insure the lower end of costs. They buy insurance policies for the catastrophic stuff. And their employees pay a portion of the premium.That is called stop loss insurance. An town most likely self insure but won't buy stop loss insurance

Paul, you keep making assumptions (like you don't believe premiums are being ramped up, and that if you work for a large company, your premiums haven't gone up much) that are wild speculation at best, demonstrably false at worst.

Healthcare costs are not going down as the Messiah promised they would.

I didn't claim that they would go down but Johnny claimed that they went up b/c of Obamacare but still hasn't provided 1 bit of evidence.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

I didn't claim that they would go down but Johnny claimed that they went up b/c of Obamacare but still hasn't provided 1 bit of evidence.

You didn't say costs would go down, but you did absolutely say they wouldn't go up much. And across the country, people's healthcare costs are rising by much more than the rate of inflation. You said companies aren't ramping up premiums because of Obamacare. What's your proof of that? Did you conduct a survey of all the largest companies, talk to the Employee Benefits department, and find out how much of the % increases are due to Obamacare? Or are you speculating, and making assumptions that are favorable to the man you support?

Obama said healthcare costs would come down. That's what he said. That's not what is happening. Tell me where I'm wrong, please.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

You didn't say costs would go down, but you did absolutely say they wouldn't go up much. And I've given you actuarial est. of the increases - none of them would justify a $2,500 increase in Johnny's premium. And across the country, people's healthcare costs are rising by much more than the rate of inflation. And they have for many, many years You said companies aren't ramping up premiums because of Obamacare. What's your proof of that? The minimum loss ratio law. Companies have to now give return premium if the claims don't hit a minimum loss ratio. Did you conduct a survey of all the largest companies, talk to the Employee Benefits department, and find out how much of the % increases are due to Obamacare? No, but has Johhny or you provided 1 piece of evidence to back his claim that costs went up $2,500 b/c of Obamacare? Or are you speculating, and making assumptions that are favorable to the man you support?I've posted what has been implemented so far and the est. claim cost increase of each. So that isn't speculation.

Obama said healthcare costs would come down. That's what he said. That's not what is happening. Tell me where I'm wrong, please.

So what discussion do you want to have? Johnny's $2,500 cost estimate or Obamacare? B/C your're mixing the 2.

[PaulS]

Jim, what is your actuarial certification?

I have to go to a meeting for a few hours.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Jim, what is your actuarial certification?

I have to go to a meeting for a few hours.

Fair question. I am a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society. As such, I'm far from an expert on healthcare, which is covered by another actuarial society and a different track of exams is required to be a healthcare actuary. But I know that if you increase coverage, and don't do something else drastic (like serious tort reform), costs are not going to decrease. Costs cannot decrease.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

You posted some numbers without any links. I am a credentialed actuary, though I don't work in healthcare. There is no way that adding a 26 year-old to an "average" policy is only a 1.5% rate increase for an "average" couple. If that was true, kids that age could get health insurance policies for $25 a month, and they can't.

Your wrong b/c your making the wrong assumptions. First, I said "claims" would increase 1.5% in the example I gave - not premium. You take claims add the insurance companies, profit, expenses, taxes, etc. Still it is not much higher than the 1.5% - prob. 1.875%. Next, you're assuming that your claims will go up that amount - they won't. You, your wife, and child won't have additional claims. Johnny (said fiancee so he is single and I'll assume he doesn't have kids) won't have an increase in claims. The 50 year old who has a child covered under his policy b.c. the child was a student age 22 won't have an increase in claims. The working 24 year old with coverage won't have an increase in claims.

The only person who has an increase in claims is the person whose child wasn't insured b/c the policy wouldn't cover them (like a un/self/underemployed 22 year old non student). So total claims will increase 1.5% but we all will share the cost.



"And they have (health costs have gone up) for many, many years "

Ah. But Obama was the one claimed he could reverse that trend. And he didn't.If you want to discuss that, it is a different issue. I said I didn't see how Obamacare increased Johnny's premium $2,500.

"The minimum loss ratio law. Companies have to now give return premium if the claims don't hit a minimum loss ratio"

"has Johhny or you provided 1 piece of evidence to back his claim that costs went up $2,500 b/c of Obamacare?"

I made no such claim. You made the claim that the effect of Obamacare has a negligible impact on loss costs. You typed in some numbers with no link to any study. And your numbers make no sense whatsoever.Really, I just showed you how you seem to have made some bad assumptions.

Paul, please show me where a 25 year-old can get a healthcare policy for 1.5% of what his parents pay for a policy? Show me a policy for a typical middle-aged couple, that only increases in price by 1.5% by adding a 25 year-old? Show me that, and I will admit you are correct. Good luck with that.So now that I have showed that you have made what appears to be bad assumptions are you going to admit that I am correct?

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Fair question. I am a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society. But I know that if you increase coverage, and don't do something else drastic (like serious tort reform), costs are not going to decrease. Costs cannot decrease.

Tort reform is small bucks (still part of the answer). I have not stated anywhere here that costs would go down. Bringing everyone (young and healthy) may do it but I don't know.

Let's try to estimate his 2012 premium and back into 2011.

$900 - your stated family cost
x 12 months
$10,800 your annual premium
50% - my estimated for what I think single coverage for Johnny was in 2012 based on your 3 or more family coverage
$5,400 Johhny's 2012 premium
- $2,500 His estimate of what Obamacare cost him in 2012
$2,900 what his estimate of what his 2012 premium would have been w/o Obamacare
$2,636 - 2011 premium. Assuming 10% trend for 2012. This is what his company would have increased Johnny's premium from
2011 to get to the $2,900.

So it appears Johnny's premium would have increased from $2,636 for 2011 to $5,400 in 2012. 205% Is that what happened? Maybe my #s are off - but where?

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Tort reform is small bucks (still part of the answer). I have not stated anywhere here that costs would go down. Bringing everyone (young and healthy) may do it but I don't know.

Let's try to estimate his 2012 premium and back into 2011.

$900 - your stated family cost
x 12 months
$10,800 your annual premium
50% - my estimated for what I think single coverage for Johnny was in 2012 based on your 3 or more family coverage
$5,400 Johhny's 2012 premium
- $2,500 His estimate of what Obamacare cost him in 2012
$2,900 what his estimate of what his 2012 premium would have been w/o Obamacare
$2,636 - 2011 premium. Assuming 10% trend for 2012. This is what his company would have increased Johnny's premium from
2011 to get to the $2,900.

So it appears Johnny's premium would have increased from $2,636 for 2011 to $5,400 in 2012. 205% Is that what happened? Maybe my #s are off - but where?

"Tort reform is small bucks "

Based on what? I know politicians on your side are against tort reform bacause they take huge $$ from the Trial Lawyers lobby, but that alone doesn't mean tort reform isn't meaningful. Tell an OB/GYN or a neurologist that tort reform is "small bucks", and they'll tell you that you don't know what you're talking about. Medical Malpractice insurance is a huge expense for doctors in many fields. You dismiss it as "small bucks", with no supporting data whatsoever, just because you want it to be true. PaulS, I can state here that I look like Brad Pitt, but sadly, that alone doesn't make it so.

I do work in reserving Medical Malpractice claims. The lawyers get huge, huge sums of money. It is not "small bucks" just because your hero won't implement it.

I never claimed what % of Johnny's increase was due to Obamacare.

Paul, you are still saying that Obamacare did not cause premium increases. You still have not backed that up with anything other than assumptions (which conveniently support your conclusion) and unsubstantiated nunbers.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

I never claimed what % of Johnny's increase was due to Obamacare.

Paul, you are still saying that Obamacare did not cause premium increases. Yup, not to the magnitude Johnny said b/c nothing was implemented prior to 2012 that would account for a $2,500 increase in 2012You still have not backed that up with anything other than assumptions (which conveniently support your conclusion) and unsubstantiated nunbers.

No assumptions - I gave you insurance company book of business estimates. You ignore everything you don't like.

Based on some of your statements on the $25 policy and others, I really don't think you're an actuary.

[PaulS]

Jim - I work for a health insurer so the %s I quote where from internal doc. which I can't post here.

[PaulS]

Here is the book of business averages for the dependents so pls. let me know where my numbers don't make sense?

The shading indicates high and low estimates.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Here is the book of business averages for the dependents so pls. let me know where my numbers don't make sense?

The shading indicates high and low estimates.

I don't know what that is. As I stated, even if the loss costs for a 26 year-old are 1.5% of the total, that does not mean that we all expect a 1.5% increase because of that. Because not everyone pays into the system. The smaller group that has to bear the burden of that additional cost, necessarily pays more than 1.5%, to make up for the fact that so many people aren't currently paying their fair share. Yuor chart, whatever that is, doesn't address that. So you cannot use that chart to extrapolate what the resultant premium increases are for the folks that pay.

And forgive me, but if you work in this industry and think that tort reform and med/mal insurance is "small bucks", that's irrefutable proof that your political ideology is preventing an objective review of the facts.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Jim - I work for a health insurer so the %s I quote where from internal doc. which I can't post here.

That's very convenient.