Future Weather: Irene

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Mike P

I don't see the big shift west that some guys seem to be talking about

Attachment 48139

There hasn't been one, not sure what crack the local news is smoking.

edit: also weather channel.
they were just going on about how GFS shows it hitting hatteras, GFS/GFS ensemble have it running about 50-100 miles offshore hatteras.

crack poureth over

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by likwid

There hasn't been one, not sure what crack the local news is smoking.

edit: also weather channel.
they were just going on about how GFS shows it hitting hatteras, GFS/GFS ensemble have it running about 50-100 miles offshore hatteras.

crack poureth over

Yeh, I just saw that bit. Plus we now have the possibilities of Tornadoes on the east side of the storm. Any check what calendar year this is ? 2012?

But someone alluded earlier that it is always safe where Jim Cantore shows up and supposedly he's doing PVD - so I'm safe!

[tysdad115]

So what casts best into a 100mph wind? Im thinking loaded bottle Darter?
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[johnny ducketts]

crap....what the hell, do i still have to payback the 8k, housing stimulus if the house is gone...?..

What did you guys do for bob, I was in upstate NY, and only 14 at the time.

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by johnny ducketts

What did you guys do for bob, I was in upstate NY, and only 14 at the time.

Drove around in the truck with brother dragging trees out of the street.

[spence]

Getting worse, it looks like the low bringing these storms today and tomorrow is going to stall out just north of us...so Irene will run right into it. They seem pretty concerned about the chance for tornados in RI and SE Mass.
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[JohnR]

Originally Posted by spence

Getting worse, it looks like the low bringing these storms today and tomorrow is going to stall out just north of us...so Irene will run right into it. They seem pretty concerned about the chance for tornados in RI and SE Mass.
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I saw that last night, likely tornadoes spawning on the eastern side of the storm.

Is it 2012 yet? Must be because I haven't seen Raven anywhere on the Hurricane threads so me thinks he's already burrowed in a mountain somewhere.

Interesting that the forecast tracks are creeping westward relative to where they were yesterday. I would have much preferred it had continued east.

[spence]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Interesting that the forecast tracks are creeping westward relative to where they were yesterday. I would have much preferred it had continued east.

Yes, either it tracks east and we get a direct hit or it continues west and we still get the wind. Doesn't look like there's a good scenario.
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[JohnR]

Originally Posted by spence

Yes, either it tracks east and we get a direct hit or it continues west and we still get the wind. Doesn't look like there's a good scenario.
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I agree.

To rephrase - continued to trend east as in eye east of Nantucket.

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by spence

Yes, either it tracks east and we get a direct hit or it continues west and we still get the wind. Doesn't look like there's a good scenario.
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It's a much better picture for us today, bearing in mind that storms don't always do what the "models" predict. If you take a look at yesterday's NOAA track, in addition to the present track being predicted to be a good bit west, the storm is predicted to weaken. Yesterday's models had it still a cat 1 storm in Maine. Today's have it possibly being "only" TS force when it reaches the CT coast. Whether that's due to the more inland track, or due to some upper atmosphere "sheer" that will start to break up the organization of the thing, I don't know, because clearly the water temps along the NJ coast are warm enough to sustain this as a cat 2 storm.

The trend in these storms of late (remember Earl last year?) is for them to drift eastwards off the track that the "models" predicted 24-48 hours beforehand. I don't think that we're out of the woods yet. However, unless these models are FUBAR, it will not drift far off to the east as Earl and prior storms did as they got closer to us.

[RIROCKHOUND]

[QUOTE=Mike P;882817]Whether that's due to the more inland track, or due to some upper atmosphere "sheer" that will start to break up the organization of the thing, I don't know, because clearly the water temps along the NJ coast are warm enough to sustain this as a cat 2 storm.[QUOTE]

It is probably a mix of interaction with the land on the left side, and shallower water. Hurricanes like warm, deep water (where the warm extends to a great depth) so it can keep the heat pump going. Generally thats around 80deg F to maintain-strengthen.....

[RIROCKHOUND]

very true. the size is remanicent of Carol, but the intensity is not.
going to be an event, but not the catasthophic event of Carol or 1938.

[Saltheart]

Moon tide + a foot or two do to wind. That leaves you maybe good to 7 or 8 foot surge. All depends on where and when it hits. Hopefully its low tide!

[Fly Rod]

I'm predicting that by the time it hits Cape Ann it will be a #1 with winds around 75 mph. Regardless of how powerful this storm is Cape Anners will be out driving along the shore watching the waves crashing along the rocky shore.

[johnny ducketts]

um... so what happens when 4 models take it west and 4 take it east and Boston and the lower cape is in the middle

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by johnny ducketts

um... so what happens when 4 models take it west and 4 take it east and Boston and the lower cape is in the middle

You do what professional weather forecasters seem to do when they're presented with that scenario--flip a coin.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by johnny ducketts

um... so what happens when 4 models take it west and 4 take it east and Boston and the lower cape is in the middle

YAHTZEE!

I'll get my coat.

Maybe I'll catch the barrier closing. If I do I'll video it.

[johnny ducketts]

that's bad right?

she's coming back more to the east then?

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by johnny ducketts

that's bad right?

she's coming back more to the east then?

Who knows, at this point. The worst case scenario for RI/SE Mass, other than taking the eye wall dead in the kisser, is landfall around Watch Hill. Bob made landfall around Westport, and everything 40-50 miles to the east got creamed. This might have a bigger area of circulation than Bob. Pick your poison--do you want it going 50 miles east of the Cape, with TS storm force winds and up to 10" of rain on already saturated soil, causing trees to uproot? Or do you want it going 50 miles west, with hurricane force winds causing trees to snap?

Best case for us is it going up the Delaware River valley into NY around Binghampton. It needs a western track for that.

[JohnR]

Damn. Not what I want to see.

[tysdad115]

Latest predicitions showing it to be a Cat one or TS by the time it gets here. Unless I'm missing something.

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by tysdad115

Latest predicitions showing it to be a Cat one or TS by the time it gets here. Unless I'm missing something.

It's really still a crap shot 72 hours ahead of time. If it stays out over the water, it may not weaken to TS strength by the time it gets here.

[likwid]

While we've had alot of model movement, GFS has stayed pretty much rock solid within 50-100 miles of its past tracks over the past 48 hours.

I'm a bit concerned with that as is RIRH.

If it stays east of hatteras its not going to degrade.

[buckman]

Originally Posted by tysdad115

Latest predicitions showing it to be a Cat one or TS by the time it gets here. Unless I'm missing something.

That's the way I see it. Cape is going to have a narly noreaster.

[johnny ducketts]

?

[striperman36]

It's comin for me in maine
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[Mike P]

2 PM forecast models (despite the 5 PM header). Note the GFS model in red---it's moved east of where it was at 8 AM this morning.

[spence]

I think people are going to see the more western track and think it's going to blow by...even if it hits NYC or CT dead on RI is likely to get pounded. New England just ain't that big and this storm is still pretty huge.

-spence

[Mike P]

8 PM GFS model still has it going a little east. Even the western tracks don't help us very much, except to the extent they cause it to weaken as it passes up the eastern third of NJ.

[Mike P]

Aw #^&#^&#^&#^&---all of the 5 AM models have it tracking farther east than yesterday's.