Rons at it again

[spence]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

You don’t know how statistics work?
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Clearly he doesn’t which is pretty scary considering he claims to be an actuary.

He also doesn’t understand the Florida’s effective tax rate is similar to or higher than many southern states.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by spence

Clearly he doesn’t which is pretty scary considering he claims to be an actuary.

He also doesn’t understand the Florida’s effective tax rate is similar to or higher than many southern states.

from the Tax Foundation, for year 2022, FL had the 11th lowest state+local tax rates in the nation.

it’s a low cost state that offers a good enough quality of life that’s attracting 850 people
a day.

Spence, please name one blue state with very low state + local taxes, which offers a quality of life sufficiently attractive that Americans
are moving there in big numbers?

https://taxfoundation.org/publicatio...rden-rankings/

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods. This visualization provides weekly estimates of excess deaths by the jurisdiction in which the death occurred. Weekly counts of deaths are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.

You don’t know how statistics work?
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

i didn’t know how that statistic worked.

for the third time, how do they know how many republicans and how many democrats died?

you cited the statistic. please
explain it, or else we know you made it up.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

i didn’t know how that statistic worked.

for the third time, how do they know how many republicans and how many democrats died?

you cited the statistic. please
explain it, or else we know you made it up.

I understand how it works and understood his explanation.

[Pete F.]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

i didn’t know how that statistic worked.

for the third time, how do they know how many republicans and how many democrats died?

you cited the statistic. please
explain it, or else we know you made it up.

Asked and answered
How do you know people move to Floriduh because of DeSantis’ policies?
We all know that’s a figment of your imagination.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[Pete F.]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods. This visualization provides weekly estimates of excess deaths by the jurisdiction in which the death occurred. Weekly counts of deaths are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.

You don’t know how statistics work?
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Here you go Jim, try a little harder and you’ll figure it out.
We’re all rooting for you
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

Here you go Jim, try a little harder and you’ll figure it out.
We’re all rooting for you
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

nowhere in there,,does it say how we’d know how many republicans died and how many democrats.

so you made that up. because you can’t deal with the truth.

[Pete F.]

DeSantis will never get out of Florida. Watch him on the debate stage. All of his fascist moves. Now going after the Covid vaccine. DM walking. Maybe senator but that’s it.
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

DeSantis will never get out of Florida. Watch him on the debate stage. All of his fascist moves. Now going after the Covid vaccine. DM walking. Maybe senator but that’s it.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

you dodged my question, shocker. who records party affiliation when someone does? i’ve never heard of that before.

f an election were today, he’d destroy Biden. Can you picture that debate? Who knows what will happen between now
and then, i don’t think he can beat trump in a primary unless it’s the two of them

do you know what fascism means? People
are associating florida with “freedom”. freedom to keep
more of their earnings, freedom to not be locked
down, etc.

[Pete F.]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

you dodged my question, shocker. who records party affiliation when someone does? i’ve never heard of that before.

f an election were today, he’d destroy Biden. Can you picture that debate? Who knows what will happen between now
and then, i don’t think he can beat trump in a primary unless it’s the two of them

do you know what fascism means? People
are associating florida with “freedom”. freedom to keep
more of their earnings, freedom to not be locked
down, etc.

Ron DeSantis banning AP African American studies, and asking colleges for a detailed list of students who received gender affirming care in the span of a few days.
This makes his position very clear: DeSantis is a racist and fascist who is trying to purify (for racists and anti-diversity crowd) what is taught in public schools and universities.
Amazing to realize DeSantis’s whole racist, fascist political career is built exclusively on the word “woke”.
Just the man for you Jim, you’re drawn to hatred like a moth to a flame.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[PaulS]

Or that people move to Florida for a reason other than politics and have been for years. I wonder if he's surprised when he hears there are more people golfing in Florida then in say New England. Florida is benefiting from the same thing that it's always benefited from i.e. retirees moving to a warmer climate. The difference is now that with the baby boomers reaching retirement age there are more people retiring.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[spence]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Or that people move to Florida for a reason other than politics and have been for years. I wonder if he's surprised when he hears there are more people golfing in Florida then in say New England. Florida is benefiting from the same thing that it's always benefited from i.e. retirees moving to a warmer climate. The difference is now that with the baby boomers reaching retirement age there are more people retiring.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Wait, and they can golf YEAR ROUND?

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by spence

Wait, and they can golf YEAR ROUND?

Last I checked, you can also golf year round in southern CA. But for some reason, way way more people move to FL.

Why do you suppose that is?

I’ll wait.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Or that people move to Florida for a reason other than politics and have been for years. I wonder if he's surprised when he hears there are more people golfing in Florida then in say New England. Florida is benefiting from the same thing that it's always benefited from i.e. retirees moving to a warmer climate. The difference is now that with the baby boomers reaching retirement age there are more people retiring.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

i never said he’s the only reason. but liberals love to say it’s all about weather, which is ridiculous because CA has nice weather and folks aren’t flocking there.

Paul if it’s all about warmth, why aren’t people
flocking to southern CA?

That’s what happens when you regurgitate an idiotic argument without giving it any thought whatsoever.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

what’s he at again, exactly?

If FL is his guinea pig, the facts suggest the people are thrilled with the results. He single handedly turned a huge, purple state red. 850 people a day from other states, are moving there.

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

i never said he’s the only reason. but liberals love to say it’s all about weather, which is ridiculous because CA has nice weather and folks aren’t flocking there.

Paul if it’s all about warmth, why aren’t people
flocking to southern CA?

That’s what happens when you regurgitate an idiotic argument without giving it any thought whatsoever.

You just said 850 are moving there bc FL is his guinea pig and people are thrilled with the results. So you're saying it is bc of his policies, but when it was pointed out people have always moved there and move there for other reasons you backtrack.

And I'm regurgitating an idiotic arguement

You're toxic.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

But you use the # and claim

i claim that conservative politics is part of it. I claim that, because it’s obviously, obviously true. Taxes is a big reason why FL is attractive, and that’s a political issue. People also love that he bucked the trend and opened things back up much sooner than other states did during covid

If the risk he took was a disaster, i’d be the first one attacking him for gambling with his citizens lives. But the fact is, he wasn’t wrong, the liberals were wrong. Desantis absolutely clobbered them with his handling of covid, how much sooner he opened up businesses, how much sooner he put kids back in schools. he also wasn’t constantly caught violating the rules he demanded everyone else live by. Gavin Newsom can’t say the same thing.

[wdmso]

Failed stunts The potential Republican presidential candidate said Wednesday that he is considering scrapping all state taxes on gas stoves,



Here’s the Rub 90% of Floridians use electric stoves. Lol

[PaulS]

Health rankings:

Look at Conn, Mass, FL and the conservative utopia of Tenn.

https://www.americashealthrankings.o...-annual-report

Kaiser foundation has other interesting stats also. Tells a similar story.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Health rankings:

Look at Conn, Mass, FL and the conservative utopia of Tenn.

https://www.americashealthrankings.o...-annual-report

Kaiser foundation has other interesting stats also. Tells a similar story.

i want aware that the state determined health. Paul, if you moved to FL, how exactly would the state make you fat, stupid, and poor?

i immediately concede that there are cultural things in the south that are unhealthy, unproductive, and very unattractive. Those are choices people make, they aren’t decided by state government dictates

i wouldn’t want to live in Bridgeport, neither would you. We don’t blame governor lamont for that, nor does he deserve much credit for the fact that Fairfield County is in CT. That’s the luck of having beautiful coastline near the financial center of the globe.

when new engländers move to FL, they take their values with them. They don’t all quit school
and eat fried twinkies all
day and live in trailers.

Put it this way. there are some very nice suburbs in NH with an amazing quality of life. They enjoy zero state income tax and no state sales tax.

Please Paul, point me to the nice suburbs in CT which have zero state income tax and zero state sales tax.

I’m not saying every single city in the south is a nice place to live. I’m saying the south has some nice places to live that are very cheap in terms of taxes. I don’t know of a nice suburb in a blue state which you could say the same thing about. Do you?

it appears to me, that if you took all the nice suburbs with a good quality of life for families which also have very low taxes, virtually all of them are in red states.

That’s what people want. the migration data makes that clear, doesn’t it?

If i were getting my money’s worth for the extra taxes i pay that would be different. i don’t get anything that i see, that i wouldn’t get in a nice NH suburb.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Health rankings:

Look at Conn, Mass, FL and the conservative utopia of Tenn.

https://www.americashealthrankings.o...-annual-report

Kaiser foundation has other interesting stats also. Tells a similar story.

I’m trying to say it better….if you moved to FL, your health and life expectancy would not decrease. Your just have a lot more money in your pocket. It’s not a function of state government, i less the states policies are encouraging an unhealthy lifestyle, which i doubt is the case in FL.

[PaulS]

I have usually ignored the # of people moving to FL thing as I couldn't be bothered but since our company isn't coming over for another hour and I'm trying to hide and stay away from the kitchen.........

My comments are in red.

If people were moving to FL bc of Desantis or R. policies, since he bc Gov. would have seen the biggest uptick in net migration.

https://www.mysuncoast.com/2022/07/2...owly-data-say/

But it is not.

By The Associated Press
Published: Jul. 28, 2022 at 9:28 AM EDT
ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — Florida grew slightly over a previous forecast in the first quarter of this year, but slowing population growth due to deaths outpacing births is still in the Sunshine State’s future over the next decade, according to estimates released last week.

The estimates released by the state Demographic Estimating Conference showed that Florida’s population growth appears to have peaked last year with a 1.6% growth rate.

Florida’s population in 2022 will stand at more than 22 million residents, trailing only California and Texas in size. The April 1 estimate was 3,795 residents higher than a forecast last December, reflecting an increase in migration.

While Florida will continue to grow over the next decade and beyond, with its population reaching just short of 25 million residents by 2032, it’s pace of growth will slow down to 0.8% in 10 years and 0.6% by 2039, according to the estimates.

The slowdown will be driven primarily by deaths outpacing births in the next decade and a half, but fewer people moving to Florida also will play a role, according to the estimates.

Net migration to Florida appears to have peaked at more than 404,000 people in 2020, and it’s expected to be only about two-thirds of that by 2032 — or more than 262,000 people.

Fl has had R gov. since like 2000. so if the population increase was bc of those policies, you would see an uptick in net migration. But you are not. Averages about 3M people per every 10 years (up to 2010)

https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/sites/defau...us6_1_2010.pdf

Population Growth in Florida
Florida is the fourth most populous
state in the nation, trailing only
California, Texas, and New York. It is
also one of the most rapidly growing, as
its population has grown by roughly
three million each decade since 1970.
Percentage growth rates, however, have
been declining steadily, from 44% in the
1970s to 33% in the 1980s, 24% in the
1990s, and a projected 18% between
2000 and 2010 (see Table 1).

Table 1. Florida Population Growth, 1970-2010 Year Population Change
%
Change
1970 6,791,418 --- ---
1980 9,746,961 2,955,543 43.5%
1990 12,938,071 3,191,110 32.7%
2000 15,982,824 3,044,753 23.5%
2010* 18,773,356 2,790,532 17.5%

3M div. by 365 days by 10 years equals = 822 per day. Close to Jim's touted 850 but if you account for the increased US pop and more baby boomers retiring you might expect more?????

Florida has always had a history of population expansion (migration):

https://depts.washington.edu/moving1/Florida.shtml


Florida Migration History 1850-2018

by James Gregory
More than any other southern state, Florida has consistantly attracted newcomers. Today only about one third of the population claims a Florida birthplace; two thirds are from somewhere else, many from Cuba and Latin America but really from every state and most nations. Migration to Florida is an old story, In the late 1800s, Florida grew rapidly as whites from neighborhing states moved south looking for land to farm. The great citrus rush and land boom started in the early decades of the 20th century and accelerated in the 1920s, attracting northerners as well as southerners. Florida's population doubled between 1920 and 1940 and then doubled again by 1960, again by 1980, and once more by 2010. Snowbird migration made New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio leading contributors after 1960. Cubans and other people from the Caribbean had been part of the population throughout the decades, but the Cuban diaspora that began in the 1960s has made an enormous impact. Since 2000 Cubans rank second only to New Yorkers among those with out-of-state birthplaces.

So since most of their Governers were Ds until fairly recently and the pop. doubled a few times you can make the arguement that if hasn't doubled since 2010 maybe as many people aren't moving there bc of the R's policies?? or there other reasons 850 people a day are moving there besides politics? year round pickleball!!!!!

[Jim in CT]

Paul, your post attempts to negate the effect of politics as a reason for the migration, by relying on estimates of what might happen in 2032? Sorry, that’s wild, wild speculation.

Paul no states population is increasing today, at the same rate that in increased between 1920 and 1940.

look at what’s happening right now. Today. Which states are seeing the most growth, which are seeing the most people
fleeing?

you mentioned warmth. why aren’t huge numbers of people
moving to southern CA?

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Paul, your post attempts to negate the effect of politics as a reason for the migration, by relying on estimates of what might happen in 2032? Sorry, that’s wild, wild speculation.

Paul no states population is increasing today, at the same rate that in increased between 1920 and 1940.

look at what’s happening right now. Today. Which states are seeing the most growth, which are seeing the most people
fleeing?

you mentioned warmth. why aren’t huge numbers of people
moving to southern CA?

I didn't attempt to negate the effect of politics on migration to FL, I actually showed that migration hasn't changed over many years regardless of what party controls the governorship. Your statement that 850 people a day move to Florida because of Republican policies holds no water.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

I didn't attempt to negate the effect of politics on migration to FL, I actually showed that migration hasn't changed over many years regardless of what party controls the governorship. Your statement that 850 people a day move to Florida because of Republican policies holds no water.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

you need to look at the migration compared to what happening in other states,,at the same
time.

i don’t believe 850 people a day move there because of republican policies. i do believe it’s evidence that in general, peopprhino those policies are a good thing. If his policies were a disaster, i don’t think 850 peoppe a day would move there.

you said they sought warmth. i asked twice why people marking warmth don’t go to southern CA. i believe you dodged twice?

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

you need to look at the migration compared to what happening in other states,,at the same
time.

I don't need to look at anything else as your comment was specifically about FL and 850 a day. They only way you would be right is if you showed that the 850 per day who moved to FL in say 1990 all voted D and now all 850 per day all vote R.

You either have that info. and have been holding it back or your statement is wrong.

[spence]

Originally Posted by PaulS

I don't need to look at anything else as your comment was specifically about FL and 850 a day. They only way you would be right is if you showed that the 850 per day who moved to FL in say 1990 all voted D and now all 850 per day all vote R.

You either have that info. and have been holding it back or your statement is wrong.

The thing #dupedjim doesn’t seem to grasp is that Florida has had the highest migration numbers of any state pretty much every year for the last century regardless of which party is in charge.

[The Dad Fisherman]

Not a single independent/Unenrolled perished in the pandemic. Just “D”’s and “R”’s
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by The Dad Fisherman

Not a single independent/Unenrolled perished in the pandemic. Just “D”’s and “R”’s
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

actually, i think the dead are all Rs. The democrats were either too smart to get it, or else lived in blue states that saved them
by virtue of being liberal.

[spence]

Jim, is losing his mind.

[Got Stripers]

Originally Posted by spence

Jim, is losing his mind.

Oh it’s been gone since the mid terms.