Lybia

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by spence

I think it's taken some time to 1) build the consensus so there's an Arab face on this action rather than being seen as pure US intervention and 2) let it play out a bit.

You're bleeping me? Give it more time. I am not a fan of intervention here (I think maybe Europe steps up on this one and we support that effort). But by the time the admin gets going, this will be all over. If you allow more time for Arab consensus it is long over. The only good new if the Arabs DO IT with an d ARAB face is that at least the Junior Varsity will be going against the Middle School squad. The action windows is nearly closed.

Originally Posted by spence

This deal would also give the Saudi Royal Family some cover as they crack down internally and help in Bahrain...NOTE: Both strategic US allies.

Yes, tough nut to decipher on this one.

Originally Posted by spence

As Iran tries to stir the pot there's the Sunni/Shiite dynamic as well here. Iran would really like the (mostly Shiite) protests in Bahrain to be successful.

Speaking of Iran, arming AQ/Taliban now. And reports are going around that a ship bound for Hamas has been intercepted with Anti Ship Missiles (not RPGs) and a Chinese ship was intercepted with WMD components bound for Iran.

Originally Posted by spence

Considering the complexity and variability of the situation, its actually not looking all that terrible. Obama seems to have been pretty careful to not make statements or promises we can't keep, something very different from Bush.

Spencism Alert! Spencism Alert! Spencism Alert!

Originally Posted by spence

And if the UN does impose a no fly zone in Lybia, who's going to stand behind the Lybian Govt? The Sudan??? I'm not sure the regime can survive...

-spence

Well, you could have a repeat of the last two wars in the middle east. No Fly Zones do not occupy territory.

[spence]

Originally Posted by JohnR

You're bleeping me? Give it more time. I am not a fan of intervention here (I think maybe Europe steps up on this one and we support that effort). But by the time the admin gets going, this will be all over. If you allow more time for Arab consensus it is long over. The only good new if the Arabs DO IT with an d ARAB face is that at least the Junior Varsity will be going against the Middle School squad. The action windows is nearly closed.

We'll see how close they really are. Clearly the Admin is not going to go it alone, nor should we. I think the bigger piece is that Khadaffi is now seen as damaged goods by even much of the Arab leadership.

Speaking of Iran, arming AQ/Taliban now. And reports are going around that a ship bound for Hamas has been intercepted with Anti Ship Missiles (not RPGs) and a Chinese ship was intercepted with WMD components bound for Iran.

Never seen a report of Iran arming al Qaeda. Sending arms to Palestine is nothing new...

Spencism Alert! Spencism Alert! Spencism Alert!

No, it's just a remark. And one I think that's defend-able. Bush would have made some dramatic remarks about standing up for those who seek freedom, the neocons would have had a circle jerk, and then they'd do nothing.

Well, you could have a repeat of the last two wars in the middle east. No Fly Zones do not occupy territory.

I think the calculus in Libya might not be in Khadaffi's favor. The real end game may be to get regime ending concessions.

-spence

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by spence

We'll see how close they really are. Clearly the Admin is not going to go it alone, nor should we. I think the bigger piece is that Khadaffi is now seen as damaged goods by even much of the Arab leadership.


Never seen a report of Iran arming al Qaeda. Sending arms to Palestine is nothing new...


No, it's just a remark. And one I think that's defend-able. Bush would have made some dramatic remarks about standing up for those who seek freedom, the neocons would have had a circle jerk, and then they'd do nothing.


I think the calculus in Libya might not be in Khadaffi's favor. The real end game may be to get regime ending concessions.

-spence

Window is closing. Center of gravity was Tripoli, now it is Benghazi. Window. Closing. No time for high end fencing around an issue. Not that I support it...

Never seen a report of Iran arming al Qaeda. Sending arms to Palestine is nothing new...

One of several reports but I'll use the NYTimes one: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/10/wo...st/10iran.html


China-Iran - take your pick (though it is earlier in this news story) Google

Obama when he doesn't do something or pick a side is good while displaying a certain elan and obvious high intelligence lost on the masses, Bush is bad - I get it.

Time will cost lives. Best to either get it on early or not at all.