"MEGA -- STORM"

[striperman36]

Wife has surgery in hartford tuesday, not a good travel for there.

NWS is saying models have the storm tracking east of the CWA and we would only have a light covering in front and perhaps a wrap around comma after, this looks like the comma could be pretty cold, 1" or less of moisture 10-15 X factor for snow.


Weatherunderground is dead on it too.

he old stalled cold frontal boundary provides a ribbon of strengthening baroclincy allowing for the surface low to intensify as it reaches our latitude. Intense deformation band of snow in the cold conveyor flow develops on the backside of the low on Tuesday and Tuesday night bringing significant amounts of snow across the Northeast within 100-150 miles of the coast down to the northern Mid-Atlantic and extending north into much of New England. As the mid-level low pressure features aloft approaches the coast secondary development occurs later Tuesday night as the primary shears out keeping snow over the region until Wednesday morning. This solution has the potential to drop a foot or more of snow across a wide region of the Northeast. QPF’s range from three-quarters of an inch to an inch and a half in both the NAM/GFS. This snow would also be rather fluffy as cold air gradually incorporates itself into the circulation of the storm system from the north. Snow ratios should range from 12-16:1 or higher near the end of the storm as max omega intersects a moist snow growth region in the deformation axis. The SREF plumes also have decent support for this scenario as the SREF mean precip over the Northeast ranges from a half inch to an inch in the above mentioned areas with many plume diagrams showing an inch or more of QPF.


So not a lot of moisture - QPF but a lot of snow - 12-16:1

[striperman36]

Here's the weatherman's dilemma
No consensus in the models across the board -
US (GFS/NAM) shows the Mega-Storm
European (UKMET) shows it going way east
Canadian models(GGEM, ECMWF) are in the middle

This winter the GFS has been pretty accurate, but with the variance, even in models from run to run has almost everyone just shrugging

In the middle of the very snowy American models and the out-to-sea UKMET lies the Canadian GGEM and the ECMWF. These models have trended west over their last couple of runs but not as extreme as the GFS/NAM or SREF’s. They take low pressure about 100-150 miles further offshore than the American models with some light to moderate QPF, generally under a half inch, in the deformation banding on the backside of the storm. This would still give areas within 50-75 miles of the coast a 2-6” snowfall, roughly a half to a third of the output of the GFS/NAM.