This Market...

[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

My god man, stick to things you know. A month ago, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 was not anywhere near crazy. It wasn't fake or speculative like the tech boom.

Whose end game was to crash the economy, exactly? Trumps?

Follow the bouncing ball... Democrats of course , according to Trump supporters

And if you think the markets been run realistically, it's clear you should take your own advice

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by wdmso

Follow the bouncing ball... Democrats of course , according to Trump supporters

And if you think the markets been run realistically, it's clear you should take your own advice

You said the market was crazy overpriced. Please justify that. Because the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 wasn't crazy high.

When unemployment is low and companies can avoid useless regulations and innovate, guess what? The market will grow. I'm sorry if that spits in the face of liberalism, but it's the way it is.

[Ian]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

You said the market was crazy overpriced. Please justify that. Because the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 wasn't crazy high.

When unemployment is low and companies can avoid useless regulations and innovate, guess what? The market will grow. I'm sorry if that spits in the face of liberalism, but it's the way it is.

Interesting stance given the state of things today...

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Ian

Interesting stance given the state of things today...

Sorry, obviously the market also needs people out spending money, that's a given. That's all that's missing right now, and it's not missing because of anything that Trump or Obama did or didn't do.

My other point is that our stock market was not insanely overpriced when the DJIA was at 29,000. All you have to do, is look at the P/E ratios or any other valuation. Not saying it was undervalued, but when the DJIA was at its peak, Warren Buffet said he thought the S&P 500 was a terrific bet if you had 5-10 years time. But what does he know?

The tech bubble was irrational when it burst. The housing bubble was irrational when it burst. Our economy, in a macro sense, was not an irrational bubble waiting to burst when this hit. Anyone who says otherwise, is lying because they have a political agenda. It was a very, very strong and robust economy.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Anyone who says otherwise, is lying because they have a political agenda. It was a very, very strong and robust economy.

Can facts lie and have a political agenda?

PE was over 20 at end of 2019 while historical mean was about 16.


Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 87% to 155%, depending on the indicator, up from 82% to 148% the previous month.
Feb 6, 2020

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Can facts lie and have a political agenda?

PE was over 20 at end of 2019 while historical mean was about 16.


Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 87% to 155%, depending on the indicator, up from 82% to 148% the previous month.
Feb 6, 2020

I looked at a few charts, that PE ratio of 20 looks below average since 1990. Not sure ratios from 1930 - 1970 are as pertinent, but maybe they are...

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-...earnings-chart

[Ian]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Sorry, obviously the market also needs people out spending money, that's a given. That's all that's missing right now, and it's not missing because of anything that Trump or Obama did or didn't do.

My other point is that our stock market was not insanely overpriced when the DJIA was at 29,000. All you have to do, is look at the P/E ratios or any other valuation. Not saying it was undervalued, but when the DJIA was at its peak, Warren Buffet said he thought the S&P 500 was a terrific bet if you had 5-10 years time. But what does he know?

The tech bubble was irrational when it burst. The housing bubble was irrational when it burst. Our economy, in a macro sense, was not an irrational bubble waiting to burst when this hit. Anyone who says otherwise, is lying because they have a political agenda. It was a very, very strong and robust economy.

There are a number of people who believe this market has all kinds of issues...

Overvaluation
Corporate debt bubble about to burst like the private mortgage bubble did
Etc

It’s really hard to take a look at what the market has done the past 4 years and say there wasn’t an inflated nature to it. There was nothing gradual about the journey to the level we just crashed from
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Ian

There are a number of people who believe this market has all kinds of issues...

Overvaluation
Corporate debt bubble about to burst like the private mortgage bubble did
Etc

It’s really hard to take a look at what the market has done the past 4 years and say there wasn’t an inflated nature to it. There was nothing gradual about the journey to the level we just crashed from
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

it’s not hard if you look at p/e ratios over the last 30 years. other than hating trump, i’m not sure on what basis you’d conclude that the economy was irrationally overvalued a month ago.

the crash had little to do with where we were, or how we got there. we got hit with an outside force that no one predicted.

I live in CT, a state that has been a 40 year experiment in pure, unchecked liberalism. The result? One of the richest states in the nation has unfunded debt equal
to four times annual revenue, and people are fleeing.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[Ian]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

it’s not hard if you look at p/e ratios over the last 30 years. other than hating trump, i’m not sure on what basis you’d conclude that the economy was irrationally overvalued a month ago.

the crash had little to do with where we were, or how we got there. we got hit with an outside force that no one predicted.

I live in CT, a state that has been a 40 year experiment in pure, unchecked liberalism. The result? One of the richest states in the nation has unfunded debt equal
to four times annual revenue, and people are fleeing.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

I never said this was Trump's fault, though I think some of the policies and speculation driven by his style of leadership certainly added explosive fuel to an already out of control fire...

But I'm surprised you're picking "this market was stable as hell" as the hill to die on here...

[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

You said the market was crazy overpriced. Please justify that. Because the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 wasn't crazy high.

When unemployment is low and companies can avoid useless regulations and innovate, guess what? The market will grow. I'm sorry if that spits in the face of liberalism, but it's the way it is.

No I said some companies were overvalued even if they made no profit

Removing regulations is a red herring like trickle down economics even most optimistic models it take 5-10 years for business to see an affect of deregulation

Dont your arms ever get tired of waving pom poms all day ...

According to a research note from Bank of America Securities, it has taken 1,100 trading days on average to regain the territory lost during a bear market.

There are 252 trading days in a year, so that means the average time to get back to where we were is 4.4 years.

I am glad I live in reality, not A Trump driven reality

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by wdmso

No I said some companies were overvalued even if they made no profit

Removing regulations is a red herring like trickle down economics even most optimistic models it take 5-10 years for business to see an affect of deregulation

Dont your arms ever get tired of waving pom poms all day ...

According to a research note from Bank of America Securities, it has taken 1,100 trading days on average to regain the territory lost during a bear market.

There are 252 trading days in a year, so that means the average time to get back to where we were is 4.4 years.

I am glad I live in reality, not A Trump driven reality

"I said some companies were overvalued even if they made no profit "

You did say that (which is correct by the way), but you said a lot more than that.

Here's what you said: "The markets haven't operated in the real world in a long time"

'The markets' is a very general term, you weren't talking about a select number of companies. The US market wasn't irrationally high. Trump haters desperately want people to think it was, because the alternative - that Trumps policies helped improve the economy to drive the growth - is too awful to even contemplate. But that's what happened. The February jobs report that came out a few days before this, absolutely crushed expectations.

"Removing regulations is a red herring like trickle down economics even most optimistic models it take 5-10 years for business to see an affect of deregulation "

CEOs are saying the deregulations helped. Again, you know better. Removing regulations can instill confidence that things will get better, even if the effect isn't in the balance sheets for some time.

"Dont your arms ever get tired of waving pom poms all day "

You ever get tired of lying? I criticize him all the time. But not when he doesn't deserve it.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by wdmso

I am glad I live in reality, :

Right, a labor union where your "reality" consists of confiscating money from your customers whether they feel like paying you or not, guaranteed raises, and rich pensions which someone else picks up most of the tab for. Yes sir, that's "reality"

You want to talk about something irrational that's not sustainable? Watch your pension fund for the next 20 years.

[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Right, a labor union where your "reality" consists of confiscating money from your customers whether they feel like paying you or not, guaranteed raises, and rich pensions which someone else picks up most of the tab for. Yes sir, that's "reality"

You want to talk about something irrational that's not sustainable? Watch your pension fund for the next 20 years.

You've been blinded. that corporate American will take care of their pepople , they have raped Americans and america for decades . . And unions are bad...

14% of companies had 401(k) plans for their employees

My reality and my retirement are a 401 k selfunded a union aka state retirement and a Military one... haters got to hate .
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