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Originally Posted by Jim in CT
That explains our massive trade surplus, our record-low unemployment, and the resurgence of the US manufacturing structure, and all the new factories being built here!
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Trade deficits are largely a function of domestic consumption. When the Bush economy was ballooning via credit we imported more, during the recession less. I'd think that as household discretionary spending increases in emerging markets the fact that much production for these goods is already overseas would benefit local producers faster.
Though, as we've discussed before, US manufacturing in many sectors is doing quite well, especially areas like heavy machinery and commercial aviation. The challenge is that factories are more productive via technology rather than people.
A global slowdown will hurt these US exports more than anything as the companies derive increasing % of revenues from emerging markets...the EU is pretty flat.
Remember, that new office park in Shanghai is probably being built with gear from Caterpillar.
-spence