Quote:
Originally Posted by spence
At about this time Ronald Reagan's approval rating was below 40%...as the economy started to improve so did his favor-ability.
It will all depend on the economy and right now the market is trending up, consumer confidence is trending up, jobs are trending up etc...the timing for Democrats couldn't be better.
This Republican primary might just leave the GOP as damaged goods. Romney will still be the likely nominee and on perhaps their biggest campaign issue -- repealing the Health Care Bill -- you have an opponent who we now know actually did advocate for the individual mandate at the Federal level.
07/30/09 - Mr. President, What's the Rush? | Mitt Romney Central
I didn't think it could get any worse for them, but it has.
Voter turn out is going to be low and this will help Obama. The vacancy in ME will also help the Democrats hold the Senate. Everything I've read indicates the GOP will lose House Seats.
You're over thinking the gas price issue. If anything people associate Obama as anti-big oil profits.
Independent voters don't see Obama as "the most ideological President ever", that's your fringe position. They look at his actual record which is left-center. Given a left-center Obama vs a right-center Romney and it's a wash...the incumbent wins because they're the devil you know.
The BIG wildcard here is Iran. If the Middle East erupts it could swing the entire election one way or the other based on how it's handled.
-spence |
"It will all depend on the economy and right now the market is trending up, consumer confidence is trending up, jobs are trending up etc"
Agreed. You also left out that the debt is trending up, and we should ask ourselves if the benefits we're seeing are worth the bill that we'll be sticking our kids with. The answer to that question may be "yes", by the way. But I'm not sure reducing unemployment to 8% is necessarily a good thing, if we bankrupt ourselves to get there. That's obviously an oversimplification of a complicated issue. But we should be talking about what he spent to get his results, is all I'm saying.
"the timing for Democrats couldn't be better."
Sure it could - the election is 6 months away, in case you didn't know. You don't want to peak too early. I'm not saying that's what's happening, I'm just saying if the market tanks in October, no one will care what it did in February.
"This Republican primary might just leave the GOP as damaged goods."
That's your fringe opinion. Chances are (after super Tuesday), Romney will be the lock, and that's 6 months before the election. Back in 2008, Hilary and Obama were in a brutal slugfest right up until the convention. I don't remember hearing you (or anyone) say then, that the primary would leave the Democrats as "damaged goods". Why the difference in opinion? Why is a bitter contest good for Democrats, but bad for Republicans?
"The vacancy in ME will also help the Democrats hold the Senate."
As of today, there are 33 Senate Democrats that are retiring or up for re-election. Only 10 Republicans are retiring or up for re-election. I'll make you any gentleman's wager you choose that the GOP has a net increase in the House and in the Senate.
'Everything I've read indicates the GOP will lose House Seats."
Given what I imagine your reading list to be, that doesn't surprise me, or worry me, in the least. You just keep believing what you read in The Huffington Post and in The Daily Worker.
"You're over thinking the gas price issue."
We'll see this summer, won't we.
"The BIG wildcard here is Iran. If the Middle East erupts it could swing the entire election one way or the other based on how it's handled."
Agreed. The economy and Iran are 2 huge factors.