At about this time Ronald Reagan's approval rating was below 40%...as the economy started to improve so did his favor-ability.
It will all depend on the economy and right now the market is trending up, consumer confidence is trending up, jobs are trending up etc...the timing for Democrats couldn't be better.
This Republican primary might just leave the GOP as damaged goods. Romney will still be the likely nominee and on perhaps their biggest campaign issue -- repealing the Health Care Bill -- you have an opponent who we now know actually did advocate for the individual mandate at the Federal level.
07/30/09 - Mr. President, What's the Rush? | Mitt Romney Central
I didn't think it could get any worse for them, but it has.
Voter turn out is going to be low and this will help Obama. The vacancy in ME will also help the Democrats hold the Senate. Everything I've read indicates the GOP will lose House Seats.
You're over thinking the gas price issue. If anything people associate Obama as anti-big oil profits.
Independent voters don't see Obama as "the most ideological President ever", that's your fringe position. They look at his actual record which is left-center. Given a left-center Obama vs a right-center Romney and it's a wash...the incumbent wins because they're the devil you know.
The BIG wildcard here is Iran. If the Middle East erupts it could swing the entire election one way or the other based on how it's handled.
-spence