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Bill has continued to move on a steady northwest track or 305
degrees at 16 knots...embedded within the flow surrounding the
Azores-Bermuda high. In about two days...the hurricane will become
steered northward and then northeastward by the flow between a
large mid-latitude trough swinging eastward across the eastern
United States and the subtropical high. Once the recurvature
begins...the hurricane should increase in forward speed. Most of
the track guidance shifted slightly to the west compared to the
previous run. This shift in guidance justifies a very small shift
to the west of the track official forecast...which indeed is very
close to the consensus.
Large swells generated by this hurricane are affecting the northern
Leeward Islands and should begin affecting the Bahamas...Bermuda...
most of the eastern U.S. Coast...and the Atlantic Maritimes of
Canada during the next few days. These swells will likely
cause extremely dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents.
Please consult statements issued by your local weather office for
more details.
This afternoon NOAA and the 53rd hurricane hunters will be
conducting a two-aircraft synoptic surveillance mission around
Hurricane Bill to improve the initial analysis for the numerical
models.
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